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United Nations, Apr 2: The global economy could shrink by up to one per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent growth, the UN has said, warning that it may contract even further if restrictions on the economic activities are extended without adequate fiscal responses.

The analysis by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) said the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting global supply chains and international trade. With nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt.

"Millions of workers in these countries are facing the bleak prospect of losing their jobs. Governments are considering and rolling out large stimulus packages to avert a sharp downturn of their economies which could potentially plunge the global economy into a deep recession. In the worst-case scenario, the world economy could contract by 0.9 per cent in 2020," the DESA said, adding that the world economy had contracted by 1.7 per cent during the global financial crisis in 2009.

It added that the contraction could be even higher if governments fail to provide income support and help boost consumer spending.

The analysis noted that before the outbreak of the COVID-19, world output was expected to expand at a modest pace of 2.5 per cent in 2020, as reported in the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020.

Taking into account rapidly changing economic conditions, the UN DESA's World Economic Forecasting Model has estimated best and worst-case scenarios for global growth in 2020.

In the best-case scenario with moderate declines in private consumption, investment and exports and offsetting increases in government spending in the G-7 countries and China global growth would fall to 1.2 per cent in 2020.

"In the worst-case scenario, the global output would contract by 0.9 per cent instead of growing by 2.5 per cent in 2020," it said, adding that the scenario is based on demand-side shocks of different magnitudes to China, Japan, South Korea, the US and the EU, as well as an oil price decline of 50 per cent against our baseline of USD 61 per barrel.

The severity of the economic impact will largely depend on two factors - the duration of restrictions on the movement of people and economic activities in major economies; and the actual size and efficacy of fiscal responses to the crisis.

A well-designed fiscal stimulus package, prioritising health spending to contain the spread of the virus and providing income support to households most affected by the pandemic would help to minimise the likelihood of a deep economic recession, it said.

According to the forecast, lockdowns in Europe and North America are hitting the service sector hard, particularly industries that involve physical interactions such as retail trade, leisure and hospitality, recreation and transportation services. Collectively, such industries account for more than a quarter of all jobs in these economies.

The DESA said as businesses lose revenue, unemployment is likely to increase sharply, transforming a supply-side shock to a wider demand-side shock for the economy.

Against this backdrop, the UN-DESA is joining a chorus of voices across the UN system calling for well-designed fiscal stimulus packages which prioritize health spending and support households most affected by the pandemic.

Urgent and bold policy measures are needed, not only to contain the pandemic and save lives, but also to protect the most vulnerable in our societies from economic ruin and to sustain economic growth and financial stability, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said.

The analysis also warns that the adverse effects of prolonged economic restrictions in developed economies will soon spill over to developing countries via trade and investment channels.

A sharp decline in consumer spending in the European Union and the United States will reduce imports of consumer goods from developing countries.

Developing countries, particularly those dependent on tourism and commodity exports, face heightened economic risks. Global manufacturing production could contract significantly, and the plummeting number of travellers is likely to hurt the tourism sector in small island developing States, which employs millions of low-skilled workers, it said.

Meanwhile, the decline in commodity-related revenues and a reversal of capital flows are increasing the likelihood of debt distress for many nations. Governments may be forced to curtail public expenditure at a time when they need to ramp up spending to contain the pandemic and support consumption and investment.

UN Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Elliot Harris said the collective goal must be a resilient recovery which puts the planet back on a sustainable track. We must not lose sight how it is affecting the most vulnerable population and what that means for sustainable development, he said.

The alarms raised by UN-DESA echo another report, released on March 31, in which UN experts issued a broad appeal for a large-scale, coordinated, comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP).

According to estimates by the Johns Hopkins University, confirmed coronavirus cases across the world now stand at over 932,600 and over 42,000 deaths.

Paris, Apr 24: The worldwide death toll from the coronavirus pandemic crossed 190,000 on Friday, with nearly two-thirds of the fatalities in Europe, according to an AFP tally compiled from official sources at 0740 GMT.

A total of 190,089 people have died and 2,698,733 been infected since the virus emerged in China in December. The hardest hit continent is Europe, with 116,221 deaths and 1,296,248 cases.

The country with the most deaths is the United States with 49,963, followed by Italy with 25,549, Spain with 22,157, France with 21,856 and Britain 18,738.

Jul 11: UK’s Prince Charles, at the ongoing India Global week 2020, has praised India’s sustainable way of life, as he emphasised on sustainable development amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Addressing the summit through a video link from London, Prince Charles said, “The country’s (India’s) diversity and resilience is a personal inspiration for him and much to teach all,” reported the All India Radio.

The three-day summit is getting held on a virtual platform from July 9 to July 11 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Around 75 sessions on subjects such as geopolitics, business, emerging technologies, banking, finance, pharmaceuticals, defence and security, and arts and culture are getting held. The summit is expected to bring together over 250 speakers and more than 5,000 participants for incisive discussion and lively debate over the three days.

During his address, Prince Charles said India’s philosophies and values have emphasised a sustainable way of life and a harmonious relationship between humanity and nature, the AIR report said.

He also informed that he spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the importance of sustainable living.

In his address, he also spoke about the ancient yogic concept of ‘Aparigraha’. “It’s the time when the world learnt this ancient wisdom from India as it seeks revival amid the pandemic, he said as reported by the AIR news.

As the countries across the globe are reeling under the corornavirus pandemic, he emphasised on sustainable development to overcome the crisis. He said, “We have an unparalleled opportunity to put people and planet at the heart of global value creation and move to sustainable markets for long-term value, balancing natural, social, and physical capital.”