New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.
Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.
Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.
It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.
Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.
The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.
Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."
On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.
Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.
Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.
Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.
"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.
According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.
"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.
He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.
"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.
Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."
On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."
"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."
Comments
This attack on Karnataka by BJP. Why did not they raid houses of BJP leaders who have become rich after BJP came to power. Reddy brothers are roaming freely and had lavesh wedding of their daughter. IT department are sleeping
Timing is good!!. Each one repeats same in cycle and then they may stop doing corruption. But Indian political population is a strange one and may start bribing each other! Congress also did all kind of tactics! Timing of investigation of corrupt DMK - daughter!
How can congress explain recovery of 10.5 crores cash from the minister's residence?Is it not embarrassing for congress leaders who called the raid witch - hunt?
What does BJP say about corruption of their own leaders. How many raids were given on the corrupt leaders of BJP. There are not hundred but thousand cases of corruption of BJP leaders. Recently in Chhatishgarh, one minister Brijmohan Aggarwal has encroached the government land. A few days ago Chief of Kerala BJP was caught for taking bribe of Rs 6 crores. After demonetization maximum black money was recovered from these BJP leaders. Before demonetization, dubious land deals were executed with their black money as they know fully that demonetization was to be declared by their party.. Black money was recovered from the BJP leader in Punjab as well from Madhya Pradesh leader. Who is funding Amit Shah who is roaming using chartered planes from one place t0 another place. What were the sources of funds during elections either for the Centre or for the states. Admitted Congress is corrupt but BJP is the most corrupt party in India.Wherefrom they got 15 crores to purchase MLAs.
All corrupt politicians are the feathers of the same bird. All are corrupt whether in the ruling party or in the opposition. Some of them are pro industrial and getting unaccountable money to be spent on their rival parties to let down. If any leader is corrupt and facing trial in the court, they either try to purchase the sitting judges or transfer them on the name of promotion. These tactics have been used by Modi Government in Gujarat to have clean chits in Godhara riots.The enquiry commission was appointed to enquire about who were behind the killings of innocent Sikhs, one Mishra was purchased by the Congress party and he was taken in Rajya Sabha.These commission heads are corrupt and working as per directions of the ruling party. How one can get justice. In India justice is denied to poor, downtrodden and minorities. These political parties have cleverly expert to change the facts into lies. They are expert to purchase and threaten others who are disagreed with them
How can there be black money? Demonetisation was supposed to eradicate it.
He's questioning the time, he's not questioning all that money that's been
seized!
"Mr. Shivakumar's mother hit out at Mr. Siddaramaiah accusing him of not
protecting her son."... ideal mother
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