Talking about insecurity among minorities a ‘political propaganda’: Naidu

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Hubballi, Apr 20: Dejected over failure to get alcohol for almost one month, a forty-five year old man and his sister died after consuming hand sanitizer in Kalghatgi taluk of Dharwad district on Sunday.

The deceased persons, identified as Basavaraj Venkappa Kuruvinkoppa and Jambavva Kattimani (50) of little hamlet Gambyapur, died at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS).

The wife of the deceased person has lodged a complaint at Kalghatgi police station stating that her husband had been addicted to alcohol since the last 10-12 years.

Basavaraj and his sister have reportedly consumed hand sanitizer several times since the last 2-3 days, severely deteriorating their health as they felt it is replacement for liquor and has high levels of spirit content.

They were admitted to KIMS only by Sunday early morning after complaining of serious pain in the stomach. The KIMS director Dr Ramalingappa Anthartani said that the deceased appears to have consumed too much sanitizer and the doctors couldn't save their life as they approached the hospital very late.

He also claimed that he is awaiting the postmortem report to know how much quantity of hand sanitizer the deceased had consumed.

"Condition of the patients was very critical when they were admitted to KIMS hospital. It seems that they had drunk too much hand sanitizer for non-availability of liquor. Consumption of hand sanitizer could prove fatal as it has high chemical contents" KIMS director Dr Ramalingappa Anthartani said

The Karnataka government has prohibited the sale of liquor ever since the Centre declared lockdown to control the spread of Coronavirus. This has prompted the alcohol addicts to buy liquor by paying hefty prices in the black market.

But, many poor people in villages have started consuming cheaper hooch and this trade has recently flourished in the rural areas.

Hooch trade has also prompted officials of the excise department to conduct raids in several villages of North Karnataka region. The many theft cases of liquor shops are reported in Karnataka as drunkards have become desperate to get alcohol.

The Karnataka government was planning to allow the sale of liquor after the end of the first phase of lockdown. But, the rising cases of Corona positive cases has prompted it to extend the ban on liquor sale until May 3.

Davanagere, Apr 26: Amid the national lockdown imposed by the Centre to check the spread of coronavirus, social distancing norms were flouted as BJP MLA from Honnali -- MP Renukacharya -- held a meeting of ASHA workers on Thursday.

The workers were present in large numbers and no distance of at least one metre between the workers was maintained during the meeting.

However, the workers were seen wearing masks at the meeting but violating the norms of social distancing.

Social distancing is one of the measures that can help people avoid contracting the highly contagious coronavirus.

According to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Karnataka has a total of 489 positive COVID-19 cases of which, 153 patients have recovered and 18 patients have died due to the deadly virus.