Deaths of children: Careless Yogi should step down as CM, says U T Khader

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bhopal, Mar 18: Congress leader Digvijay Singh's detention by police in Bengaluru is display of "dictatorship and Hitlarshahi" by the BJP, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath said here on Wednesday.

Singh staged a protest near a Bengaluru resort this morning where rebel MLAs of Madhya Pradesh Congress are staying, and demanded that he be allowed to meet them.

Singh, who has been detained by the police, accused the BJP of holding the MLAs captive and said that he would go on a "hunger strike".

Reacting to this, Nath said if the need arises he would also go to the Karnataka capital.

"Preventing Congress Rajya Sabha candidate and other ministers from meeting MLAs, misbehave with them, forcibly taken them into custody is totally a dictatorship and hitlershahi (sic)," Nath said in a tweet.

"Entire country is watching how an elected government is being made unstable and how BJP is murdering democratic values," Nath said.

"Why they are not allowing them to meet MLAs. What BJP is afraid of. BJP is playing a dirty political game in the state," the chief minister tweeted.

Demanding immediate release of detained Congress leaders, Nath said that democratic norms and Constitutional values are being stifled.

Later speaking to reporters, the CM said, "Why the BJP is afraid of presenting 16 MLAs here (Bhopal)? What is the problem in one person (Singh) meeting with 16 legislators?"

Nath reiterated that his government had proven majority on floor of the House in the last 15 months since coming to power.

Amid political uncertainty in Madhya Pradesh, the state Congress Legislature Party on Tuesday moved the Supreme Court seeking direction to the Centre and the BJP-led Karnataka government to grant it access to communicate with its rebel MLAs staying in Bengaluru.

The apex court had also directed the Kamal Nath government to respond by Wednesday to a plea by senior BJP leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan seeking immediate floor test in the Assembly.

Mangalore, Jun 3: One man was arrested by the Crime Branch of city police from Mangalore for allegedly having links with gangster Ravi Pujari, Joint Commissioner of Police (Crime) Sandeep Patil said on Wednesday.

According to the police, the man identified as Ghulam has been sent to 10-day police custody.

"During the investigation of a case related to Ravi Pujari, it was found that one Ghulam is a close associate of Pujari and had helped him in extortion and other illegal activity. Ghulam was arrested from Mangalore. He was produced before a court and sent to 10-day police custody," Patil said.

The senior police officer said that further investigation is on in the matter.

Pujari, who was wanted in several cases including ones related to heinous crimes like murder and extortion, was brought to Bengaluru earlier this year from Senegal. He had reportedly gone underground two decades ago and had allegedly been carrying out illegal activities from abroad.