25 eloquent points from PM Modi’s I-Day speech 

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

Bengaluru, Jan 8: The second instalment of flood relief funds from the Centre, announced on Monday, has left BS Yediyurappa less than cheerful, with the chief minister insisting that it is barely adequate. The CM on Tuesday said he will urge the Union government to release more.

On Monday, the Centre announced it will release Rs 669.8 crore in addition to the Rs 1,200 crore it had released earlier towards flood relief and rehabilitation. The total sum is a small fraction of the loss, which the government pegged at a staggering Rs 38,000 crore.

“The Centre has released assistance in two instalments so far, but it is inadequate given the magnitude of the damage. I will request for more funds and I am confident the Centre will oblige,” Yediyurappa told reporters.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited the state last week, Yediyurappa had urged him — even openly at a function — to release funds. This followed several pleas over the past four months, which barely drew a response from the Centre. Now, the CM himself suggests it’s barely a drop in the ocean.

The opposition has been criticizing both Yediyurappa and the Centre for their handling of the situation and on Tuesday, leader of the opposition Siddaramaiah of the Congress criticised the CM for “misguiding people” on the sum released by the Centre.

Siddaramaiah tweeted, “Reports from State govt officials say only Rs 669 cr of addl funds are released in 2nd instalment as opposed to the claim of Rs 1,870 cr by Karnataka BJP leaders. At a time when manufacturing industries are closing, BJP’s fake news factory is running at full potential ".

In another tweet, he said, “Moved by the plea of chief minister, Yediyurappa, Prime Minister Narendra Modi released an additional Rs 669.8 crore, taking the total amount to Rs 1,869.8 crore. BJP leaders, who are devotees of the god of lies, attempts to depict the total relief amount as 1200+1869.85 = Rs 3,069 cr is ridiculous.”

A high-level committee chaired by Union home minister Amit Shah had sanctioned the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) funds on Monday. While the Press Information Bureau claimed Rs 1,869 crore was approved on Monday, state government officials clarified that the figure included the Rs 1,200 crore released in October.

Meanwhile, sources say the two instalments is all the assistance the state can expect from the Centre towards flood relief. Sources say the Rs 1,870 crore is roughly 60% of the funding — Rs 3,000 cr— which was supposed to be allocated for Karnataka, based on an inter-ministerial team’s assessment of losses in the state.

“Compared to other states for the same period, Karnataka has received the highest amount in flood relief. We cannot expect more,” said a revenue department official, who said the government will not approach the Centre for a special package.

However, revenue minister R Ashoka said the state will pitch for the entire Rs 3,000 crore. “The state government will pursue the matter with the Centre until it releases the entire Rs 3,000 crore. The state government will cover the remainder of the Rs 38,000 crore loss. We will not go back on our word,” Ashoka said. Incidentally, the state has spent about Rs 6,000 crore on relief and rehabilitation so far.

Bengaluru, Jan 6: Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa on Sunday launched the ruling BJP's outreach campaign in favour of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Bengaluru.

"The CAA came into being after its amendment bill was passed in Parliament during its winter session with the support of major political parties. It is meant to give shelter and protection to Hindu minorities facing persecution in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. It does not take away any rights of Indians," Yediyurappa told residents on a door-to-door campaign in the city.

Accusing the opposition Congress of misleading the people on the CAA and inciting its protesters to indulge in violence, the chief minister said the Act does not cause any problem to all sections of Indians.

"There is no question of taking away anyone's citizenship, including that of Muslims, as the Act only facilitates the return of the Hindus persecuted in the neighbouring countries in the sub-continent," he asserted.

State deputy chief minister H.C. Ashwath Narayana and party's Bengaluru Central Lok Sabha member P.C. Mohan accompanied the chief minister on his outreach programme in some residential and commercial areas of the city.

As part of the nationwide campaign in favour the CAA, the party's state unit president Nalin Kumar Kateel and the state's dozen cabinet ministers led the campaign in other cities across the southern state.

"An awareness campaign will be peacefully held daily till January 15 across the state to counter the protests against it by students and other people at the behest of the Congress and Left parties," Kateel told reporters at Mangaluru, 350km southwest of Bengaluru.

Kateel is a BJP Lok Sabha member from the state's Dakshina Kannada seat.

Besides contacting the people directly at their doorstep through the party's leaders, cadres and supporters, the BJP is reaching all sections of society through social media and by holding pro-CAA rallies in all the 30-district headquarters across the state over the next 10 days.

"About 300 leaders and cadres of the party have fanned out in cities and towns across the state to explain the provisions of the CAA to the people and clarify their doubts, as the protesters were misleading them with wrong information about it," reiterated Kateel.

The CAA came into being after the President enacted the a law to give citizenship rights to Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians who have been allegedly persecuted as minorities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan over the last seven decades.

"A deliberate misinformation campaign has been carried out against the CAA by vested interests, misguiding a section of college/university students, their faculty, activists and members of the minority community on its provisions so as to create unrest and trigger violence in the country," Ravikumar claimed.

The ruling party also held rallies and public meetings in major cities like Mysuru, Mangaluru, Hubballi, Belagavi, Bellary and Kalaburagi across the state and enlightened the people on the benefits of the CAA.

"As social media is all-pervasive with greater reach and better impact, we are also reaching about one crore people of all ages through Kannada, Hindi and English script, messages and audio/video clips in the state during the fortnight campaign," added Kateel.