Media completing ignoring issues of rural India, says Sainath

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Udupi, Feb 10: The throat swabs of three suspected coronavirus patients in Udupi that was sent for tests have come back as negative.

Throat swabs of three persons who got admitted at a district government hospital in Udupi with symptoms of fever on Friday was sent to Bangalore medical college and research institute for test to know whether the admitted persons who returned from China 15 days back had contracted coronavirus.

The 30-year-old man from Kaup taluk had been China on personal work and had returned to Udupi 15 days back. Upon showing the symptoms of fever, throat pain and cold, he was suggested to get admitted.

He was admitted in the isolation ward and was directed to remain under quarantine till the observation period ends and till the test report is obtained.

Another family from Mandarthi, a man and his wife, who had returned after a tour from China 15 days back were also kept under observation at the isolation ward in the district government hospital, Udupi.

Udupi DC G Jagadish has said that there are no coronavirus case reported in Udupi and people need not panic. Sources said that the three tested negatives for coronavirus in Udupi will be discharged from the hospital on Monday.

Bengaluru, Jun 17: The Congress on Wednesday decided to field senior party leader B K Hariprasad and incumbent Naseer Ahmed as candidates for the coming legislative council polls in Karnataka.

"The Congress President Sonia Gandhi has approved the proposal for the candidature of B K Hariprasad and Naseer Ahmed as Congress candidates to contest the biennial elections to the Legislative Council of Karnataka to be elected by the MLAs," the AICC said in a release.

The election is necessitated as the term of seven MLCs- Naseer Ahmed, Jayamma, M C Venugopal, N S Bose Raju, H M Revanna (all Congress), T A Sharavana (JDS) and independent D U Mallikarjuna- will end June 30.

Polling will be held on June 29 to fill seven MLC berths, and June 18 is the last date for filing of nominations.

While the BJP is in a position to win four out of seven seats, the Congress can win two and the JD(S) one.

Twenty-eight valid votes of MLAs are required for each candidate to win.

Hariprasad’s candidature has been announced as his tenure in the Rajya Sabha is coming to end on June 25.

He has also served as general secretary of the party.

Naseer Ahmed, who is retiring as MLC on June 30, will be seeking another term.

According to state Congress president D K Shivakumar, more than 200 aspirants have sought tickets for the two seats that the party can win in the legislative council polls.