Jain couple to leave minor daughter, Rs 100-cr property for monkhood

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Jun 10: Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) supremo and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda said on Tuesday that he filed his nomination for the June 19 Rajya Sabha elections from Karnataka in response to a collective call from national leaders to be back in the Parliament.

"Though I was not personally interested to contest, national leaders from Congress President Sonia Gandhi, National Conference President Farooq Abdullah, TMC and Left parties want me back in Parliament," he told reporters here.

Gowda, 87, filed his nomination in the Vidhana Soudha, submitting the papers to Assembly Secretary and Returning Officer M.K. Vishalakshi, a party official told IANS.

Gowda''s second son and former minister H.D. Revanna and third son and former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy were present on the occasion.

"Our party''s all 34 legislators also urged me to contest as my presence is necessary in Parliament at a time when the country was grappling with multiple crises in the aftermath of coronavirus," said Gowda.

Claiming that there was no pressure from his two sons as they are more concerned with his health, Gowda said he was touched by the requests of the national leaders, especially Gandhi who personally called him and asked him to contest as the country needed his presence in Parliament.

Gowda agreed to contest in the bypoll as his party''s candidate after the Congress state unit assured him of its support with its surplus votes, as the JD-S with 34 legislators is short of 10 votes of the required 44 votes.

It will be second time Gowda will enter the Rajya Sabha, 24 years after he was its member as the Prime Minster from June 1996 to April 1997 of the United Front government.

"Congress General Secretary K.C. Venugopal informed Kumaraswamy on June 6 that the party was fielding only its senior leader Mallikarjun Kharge from Karnataka and had surplus votes to ensure my victory as our party is 10 votes short of the required 44 votes to win," Gowda said.

Kharge filed his nomination on Monday.

Party''s outgoing member Kupendra Reddy, whose 6-year term ends on June 25, told Gowda that he was not interested for a second term as he did not get enough time in the upper house to raise issues.

"As our party does not have numbers in Parliament to get more time allotted to raise issues and participate in debates, Reddy wanted me to be in the Rajya Sabha in his place so that I could serve the nation better," Gowda said.

Gowda lost in the May 2019 general elections from Tumkur to G.S. Basvaraj of the BJP.

With the term of the four members -- Congress'' B.K. Hariprasad and Rajeev Gowda, BJP''s Prabhakar Kore and JD-S''s Reddy ending on June 25, the Election Commission notified the poll on June 1.

According to the poll panel, the nominations will be scrutinised on Wednesday and last date for withdrawal by candidates is June 12. Polling and vote count is on June 19.

From the ruling BJP, its grassroot cadres Eranna Kadadi and Ashok Gasti filed their nominations after Gowda.

By fielding Gowda for the fourth seat, the Congress and JD-S, who had post-poll and pre-poll alliances for the Lok Sabha and state Assembly elections in May 2019 and May 2018, queered the pitch for the BJP, denying it the chance to win a third seat.