Hadiya marriage: Kerala govt rubbishes NIA’s shocking claims

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Mumbai, Jan 30: The Uttar Pradesh Special Task Force (STF) has arrested Dr Kafeel Khan from Mumbai airport for allegedly making inflammatory statements at AMU during protests against the Citizenship Amendments Act (CAA) last month, officials said.

Khan was arrested on Wednesday night with assistance from Mumbai Police at the airport when he arrived in the city to attend anti-CAA protests, an official said.

"Officials of the UP STF arrested Dr Kafeel Khan in a case which was registered at Civil Lines Police Station under section 153 A (promoting enmity between different groups) of IPC. Our police team helped our UP counterparts on their request," said an official from Mumbai Police.

He claimed that Khan had made inflammatory statements on December 12 last year during the protest near Bab e Syed Gate outside the Aligarh Muslim University in front of more than 600 students.

The official also alleged that the Gorakhpur doctor had made objectionable comments against Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

The FIR against Khan mentions that Swaraj India's president Yogendra Yadav was also present during the speech at AMU.

Following the arrest in the case, Khan was taken to the Sahar Police Station and after completing formalities he will be taken to UP on transit remand, the official said.

Khan, a paediatrician, had come to the limelight in 2017 when a controversy broke out after the death of over 60 children in less than a week at the BRD Medical College in Gorakhpur, UP.

Bengaluru, Jun 10: Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) supremo and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda said on Tuesday that he filed his nomination for the June 19 Rajya Sabha elections from Karnataka in response to a collective call from national leaders to be back in the Parliament.

"Though I was not personally interested to contest, national leaders from Congress President Sonia Gandhi, National Conference President Farooq Abdullah, TMC and Left parties want me back in Parliament," he told reporters here.

Gowda, 87, filed his nomination in the Vidhana Soudha, submitting the papers to Assembly Secretary and Returning Officer M.K. Vishalakshi, a party official told IANS.

Gowda''s second son and former minister H.D. Revanna and third son and former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy were present on the occasion.

"Our party''s all 34 legislators also urged me to contest as my presence is necessary in Parliament at a time when the country was grappling with multiple crises in the aftermath of coronavirus," said Gowda.

Claiming that there was no pressure from his two sons as they are more concerned with his health, Gowda said he was touched by the requests of the national leaders, especially Gandhi who personally called him and asked him to contest as the country needed his presence in Parliament.

Gowda agreed to contest in the bypoll as his party''s candidate after the Congress state unit assured him of its support with its surplus votes, as the JD-S with 34 legislators is short of 10 votes of the required 44 votes.

It will be second time Gowda will enter the Rajya Sabha, 24 years after he was its member as the Prime Minster from June 1996 to April 1997 of the United Front government.

"Congress General Secretary K.C. Venugopal informed Kumaraswamy on June 6 that the party was fielding only its senior leader Mallikarjun Kharge from Karnataka and had surplus votes to ensure my victory as our party is 10 votes short of the required 44 votes to win," Gowda said.

Kharge filed his nomination on Monday.

Party''s outgoing member Kupendra Reddy, whose 6-year term ends on June 25, told Gowda that he was not interested for a second term as he did not get enough time in the upper house to raise issues.

"As our party does not have numbers in Parliament to get more time allotted to raise issues and participate in debates, Reddy wanted me to be in the Rajya Sabha in his place so that I could serve the nation better," Gowda said.

Gowda lost in the May 2019 general elections from Tumkur to G.S. Basvaraj of the BJP.

With the term of the four members -- Congress'' B.K. Hariprasad and Rajeev Gowda, BJP''s Prabhakar Kore and JD-S''s Reddy ending on June 25, the Election Commission notified the poll on June 1.

According to the poll panel, the nominations will be scrutinised on Wednesday and last date for withdrawal by candidates is June 12. Polling and vote count is on June 19.

From the ruling BJP, its grassroot cadres Eranna Kadadi and Ashok Gasti filed their nominations after Gowda.

By fielding Gowda for the fourth seat, the Congress and JD-S, who had post-poll and pre-poll alliances for the Lok Sabha and state Assembly elections in May 2019 and May 2018, queered the pitch for the BJP, denying it the chance to win a third seat.