Godhra tragedy: Guj HC reduces death sentence of 11 to life term

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 10: Eight foreign nationals from Italy and United Kingdom, who were undergoing treatment in Kerala, have recovered fully from COVID-19, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said on Thursday.

The state reported 12 more positive cases of coronavirus on Thursday taking the total number of confirmed cases to 357, Vijayan said as he cautioned that the strict vigil against the pandemic will continue.

While the northern districts of Kannur and Kasaragod reported four cases each, two cases were reported from Malappuram district and one each from Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram districts, Vijayan told reporters after a COVID-19 review meeting here.

Of the eight foreign nationals, seven were undergoing treatment at the Ernakulam Medical College Hospital and one in Thiruvananthapuram Medical College Hospital, Vijayan said, adding that some of the patients were in a serious condition.

The seven foreigners from UK, admitted in Ernakulam medical college, were part of the group which had on March 15 tried to leave the country without permission while being under observation at Munnar, a hill station in the state.

The Italian tourist in Thiruvananthapuram was staying at a resort at Varkala near here and was admitted to hospital on March 13, Vijayan said.

"The recovery of this UK tourist group, which comprised of 83 and 76-year-olds is a testimony to our robust healthcare system and good treatment extended to these patients," the chief minister said.

It has been 100 days since the first COVID-19 case was reported in the state and since then, a total of 357 cases have been confirmed and currently, 258 patients are under treatment in different hospitals.

New Delhi, Mar 12: A PIL was moved in the Delhi High Court on Thursday seeking directions to the Centre to take appropriate steps for stopping religious conversion of socially and economically downtrodden people, particularly of the Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe community.

The plea claims that the government has done nothing to stop religious conversions.

The plea is listed before a bench of Chief Justice D N Patel and Justice C Hari Shankar on Friday.

The petition, by BJP leader and lawyer Ashwini Kumar Upadhyay, alleges that many individuals, NGOs and institutions are converting downtrodden persons by "intimidating, threatening, luring by monetary benefits and by other acts, including miracle healing, black magic and more".

"Many individuals/organizations have started conversions of SC/STs in rural areas and the situation is very alarming. The mass religious conversion of the socially economically downtrodden men, women and children, and, in particular of the scheduled caste and scheduled tribe community, is on the rise in the last 20 years," the petition claims.

It further claims as per the 2011 census, Hindus constitute 79 per cent of the population down from 86 per cent in 2001 and if no action is taken "Hindus will become minority in India".

Upadhyay suggested enacting of a law to prevent conversions by force or deceit and to award jail term for any violation.

"Additionally, the State may empower the National Human Rights Commission to deal with the affairs of religious groups and analyse religious discrimination among them," he suggests.

Apart from seeking steps to prevent religious conversions by force, threats or deceit, the petition also wants directions prohibiting religious gatherings "intended to mislead people by making false and untenable claims" to lure ignorant masses to join a particular faith or religious group.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.