Mangaluru, Mumbai to be first Indian cities to submerge: NASA study

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Hubballi, Apr 16: Police have seized a vehicle carrying nine members of a family from Dharwad for misusing the travel pass issued by the district administration in Narendra Village and sent them for Quarantine.

Deputy SP Ravi Nayak and his team stopped the vehicle at Narendra village, in the outskirts of the city and found out that they were from Uppina Betagiri village returning from a wedding function using government pass issued for medical reasons.

The police seized the vehicle and sent them to KIMS hospital for a medical check-up. Their swab samples have been collected and sent for testing. The police have asked them to go for a compulsory home quarantine for 14 days.

Bengaluru, Jan 6: JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy on Monday said he would not get involved in any 'wicked act' of bringing down the B S Yediyurappa-led government in Karnataka, amid claims that 15 to 20 BJP MLAs were ready to come out.

Clarifying that he would not disturb the government, the former Chief Minister said for him, the development of the state was important. "With great difficulty, you (Yediyurappa) have become Chief Minister for the fourth time, (I am) happy, I have nowhere said that I will disturb your government. Even now some people come and ask why I'm sitting silent when 15-20 people are ready to come out of BJP and why don't I make an attempt (to poach them), Kumaraswamy said. Speaking to reporters in Hassan, he sought to know why he should get entangled in that 'sludge' and he was not in a hurry.

"I will not get involved in a wicked act of removing a responsible government like Yediyurappa did. For me the development of the state is important," he said.

Though Kumaraswamy had raised questions about the longevity of the BJP government ahead of the December 5 bypolls, he had even then given clear indications that he would not attempt to pull down the administration as it would affect the development of the state.

The ruling BJP had swept the by-elections by winning 12 of the total 15 seats, helping the Yediyurappa government retain the majority in the Assembly.

With BJP winning 12 of the 15 assembly constituencies, it's numbers went up from 105 (including an independent) to 117, which is well ahead of the halfway mark of 111 in a 223-member Assembly (two seats-- Maski and R R Nagar-- are vacant due to pending litigation in the High Court).

The BJP came to power after the Kumaraswamy-led Congress-JD(S) coalition government collapsed as 17 MLAs had rebelled against the alliance leadership and resigned as legislators, to later favour the saffron party.