Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.
"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."
India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.
While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.
Okay Budget
“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.
The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.
On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.
The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.
Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.
Key highlights from the budget:
* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders
* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies
* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more
* Spending on education raised 5%
* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%
Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.
“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.
With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:
The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.
-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist
Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.
Comments
Sure he will pay for such barbaric henious act, just a matter of wait and watch.
Retaliate kill him and supportng RSS leader in same manner.
Uncultured barbarian act...!! Culprit should be hanged in order to put end to these ruthless act.
Shourya diwas part 2 by VHP? India is becoming famous in negative sense day by day, all credit to right extremist hindu groups!
Give them more power, we will become next Taliban, Nazi!!!
That whole area of Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc) is still pretty much brutally primitive. Not only that they have not achieved much in materialistic standards in seven decades of independance but in terms of behavior also, the people on the ubcontinent have remained to be quite primitive !
RSS should be happy today, as one of their cadre has done them proud. RSS has made animals out of humans. This is what RSS wants in India. Great. Bharat Mata ki Ja
Love jihad is a very dangerous practice which is now spreading in whole of India. Though the murder of a lab on the name of love jihad in Rajasthan can not be justified but those responsible for this practice must be identified and sent in jail with exemplary punishment.
Check the original video. The cries of the poor helpless man are still haunting me. How can somebody be so ruthless? Comparing this scumbag to an animal is an insult to whole of animals. As lynching was a common phenomenon by the so-called fully tolerant, totally peace loving Hindus, I felt perhaps it should be the work of few uncivilized religious bigots. Now I wonder the difference between Hindus and the other peace loving religion. If Hindus have muscle power, money power, position and the required resources, they can be one of worst sects or an ideal competitor for the other peace loving religion in this world.
@Bhageeraha Bhaira,
What you said is applicable to all. Many so called "peace lovers" killed poor peopel.
Many Hindus got killed by muslim terrorists. Then no news.
Mr Kumar! Killing is not intolerance. This is terrorism. The word ‘Intolerance’ can be used if someone doesn’t tolerate the smell of your body.
Intolerance... Attack on muslims increasing
Shocking incident
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