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New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Bengaluru, Mar 19: Medical Education Minister Dr Sudhakar on Wednesday said that the government is increasing the number of labs for COVID-19.

"For the last two months, screening has been done at airports. Quarantine is also being done. The situation was reviewed by the state cabinet. All passengers from abroad will be home quarantined or they can stay at government facilities or budget hotels or resorts or private hospitals," Sudhakar said in the Assembly.

"We have issued many advisories. Until 31st March, pubs, and hotels, religious events, should not have an assembly of more than 100 persons. Two bulletins will be issued twice a day. All those who arrive from abroad will be stamped that they have arrived from abroad. Covid-19 is growing at a phenomenal pace. We need not panic but we need to be cautious," he said.

Sudhakar continued: "There are 54 labs in the country. Karnataka has five labs, the most among all states. We are increasing the number of labs. In our country, we have tested less than 10 per cent. In Karnataka, we should conduct test on more people."

The minister said the government will devise a way to be able to track down all those home quarantined through their mobile phones.

"Karnataka stands fourth after Maharashtra, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh. We are in the second stage. The next 2-3 weeks are detrimental. This is a pandemic situation. People have to also take responsibility. Social distancing is the real solution and key to eradicating this COVID-19. In the larger interest of the health of the state, we have to take drastic measures," he said.

"We are now in the 2nd stage. The next 3 weeks are very important. If we take care, the state can escape what's happening worldwide," he said.

Congress MLA UT Khader demanded action against those people who do not follow rules.

"Only shutting airports will not help. What about domestic passengers? Coronavirus must come under Ayushman Bharat. Keep isolated patients away from normal people in the ICU in government hospitals. Take action against those who do not follow the rules," he said.

Congress MLA Dr Yathindras said that screening is not enough and travelers need to be lab tested.

A total of 151 positive cases of coronavirus have been reported in India so far, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Wednesday.

Thirteen positive cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Karnataka till today.

Bengaluru, Jul 5: Day after a Covid-19 patient died on a road near his home waiting for an ambulance for nearly two hours, Bengaluru civic body commissioner on Saturday offered his unconditional apology for the tragic incident.

Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagar Palike (BBMP) Commissioner BH Anil Kumar met the family of the 55-year-old Covid-19 victim who died unattended on the roadside on Friday and apologised on behalf of the BBMP.

BH Anil Kumar also appealed to citizens to not stigmatise coronavirus patients and their families.

"Met the family of the Covid victim in Gavipuram who was left unattended on the roadside. Offered an unconditional apology on behalf of the BBMP as our staff could have handled the situation in a better manner. Appeal to citizens not to stigmatise Covid-19 patients & families," BH Anil Kumar said in a tweet.

In one of the pictures tweeted by BH Anil Kumar, he can be seen standing with folded hands in front of the deceased Covid patient's family.

The 55-year-old man was getting treatment at his house after he developed breathing issues. However, his condition worsened after his Covid-19 report came positive. His wife then informed the hospital and requested an ambulance.

His family members decided to take him to the hospital by an autorickshaw as the ambulance was getting late. However, the man collapsed on the street as soon as he stepped out of his house.