Modi receives Israeli PM Netanyahu at airport

New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

Dehradun, Jun 13: Chief of Army Staff General M M Naravane on Saturday said the country is passing through difficult times and its safety and honour depend on the ability of its young officers as military leaders.

Addressing gentlemen cadets at the Indian Military Academy here as the reviewing officer of a passing out parade, Gen Naravane said they are being commissioned as officers into the army under the most daunting of circumstances and the high standards of their military training will help them overcome the challenges lying in store for them.

The parade saw a total of 423 cadets being commissioned into the army including 333 from the country and 90 from friendly foreign countries.

"These are difficult times for the country. Its safety, honour and respect depend on your abilities as military leaders. You have to live up to the expectations of your countrymen. You have to ensure that whatever you do is for their welfare," he said.

The army chief said there are no good or bad regiments but only good officers.

"Become one with your men. Win their trust and affection and they will win battles for you," Naravane said.          

He asked the gentlemen cadets to throw themselves into their new role as commissioned officers with passion but also be compassionate towards their men.

"When the going gets tough and all seems lost, it is the spirit of your men that helps you win," he said.          

He said the gentlemen cadets who are taking their first step as commissioned officers will have to make decisions in the tactical and operational domain as well as resolve ethical issues and they will have only their conscience to guide them.          

"In such critical moments let the core values enshrined in the preamble of the constitution of India be your guiding light," the Army Chief said.

Asking them to rise above petty considerations of caste, creed and religion, he said the army does not discriminate.

Apart from containing the external threats, you may also have to defang internal forces out to destabilise the country.

He said the precise drill movements of the cadets had convinced him they will do their respective countries proud.

"In the autumn of your careers what will matter is not the position you finally attain but how honourably you have served your nation," he said.              

In a message to the gentlemen cadets' parents, who were not allowed to attend the event due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Army Chief said, "Till yesterday they (gentlemen cadets) were your children but from tomorrow they will be ours."

He promised to be with them through thick and thin.

The parade looked slightly off-colour this time with the enthusiastic crowds of parents and some usual features missing like the showering of the drill square with flower petals by helicopters.

Lucknow, Feb 2: In an early morning firing at Lucknow's Hazratganj, the city centre, Vishva Hindu Mahasabha state president Ranjit Bachchan was killed while he was out on a morning walk on Sunday.

Ranjit Bachchan was taking a stroll in Hazratganj in the morning when bike-borne assailants opened fire on him and killed him on the spot. The Mahasabha leader was shot in the head multiple times.

The incident took place near the CDRI building in Lucknow's Hazratganj.

In the firing, Ranjit Bachchan's brother also suffered bullet injuries. He has been rushed to the trauma centre. Ranjit Bachchan was a resident of Gorakhpur.

The early morning shootout in the Uttar Pradesh capital's central area has caused tension in the area.

Dinesh Singh, DCP Central Lucknow, said, "The body has been identified as of Ranjit Bachchan, who had gone out on morning walk when some unknown assailant shot him. A police team has been formed and further investigation is being carried out."

Before being associated with the Mahasabha, Ranjit Bachchan was a Samajwadi Party member and was often spotted with former UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav.

The Samajwadi Party has hit out at the Yogi Adityanath government over the law and order situation in the state and demanded immediate resignation of the government.