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Thiruvananthapuram, Feb 29: With Saudi Arabia indefinitely suspending visas for visit to Islam's holiest site for the Umrah pilgrimage in the wake of coronavirus outbreak, more than 10,000 people in the state who are awaiting their turn this year for the annual Hajj pilgrimage are a worried lot.

"This year more than 10,000 people in Kerala have been cleared by the Hajj committee," said C Muhammed Faizy, chairman, Kerala State Hajj Committee.

"There is no cause of worry. We hope that during the time of the pilgrimage, the travel restriction by Saudi Arabia will be lifted," he said.

Umrah is a pilgrimage to the holy site that can be undertaken at any time of the year, while the annual Hajj pilgrimage has specific months according to the lunar calendar.

"The move by the Saudi Arabian Government to impose travel restriction was due to the outbreak of coronavirus. It is a preventive step to contain it. In such large gatherings, if one person is affected, it will spread to others. So we fully understand the concerns of the Saudi Government," Muhammed Faizy added.

He said that the Hajj Committee only processes the requests of annual Hajj visit pilgrims and not Umrah.

"This year we expect the Hajj pilgrimage season to be from June to August after Ramzan. But it may vary according to the Ramzan date. We are yet to get any official correspondence from the Saudi Government regarding travel restrictions," he added.

The Saudi Arabian Government suspended visas for tourists from countries affected by the coronavirus, with many having to cancel their Umrah pilgrimage at the last minute.

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

Riyadh, Apr 22: In an extraordinary initiative, the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has decided to facilitate the travel of expatriates who have an exit and reentry visa or final exit visa to return to their countries.

This is in line with the order of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

According to the initiative, called “Auda” (return), expatriates can apply seeking permission for travel to their countries through the Absher portal of the ministry.

Announcing this, Saudi's Ministry of Interior said that the initiative will be implemented in cooperation with a number of relevant government agencies.

Requests for travel from expatriates will be received and approved in coordination with the relevant authorities to complete their travel procedures on board international flights.

As per the initiative, a text message will be sent to the beneficiary stating the travel date, ticket number and reservation details, and by which the beneficiary can obtain his travel ticket and complete the travel procedures.

Clarifying the procedures for the travel, the ministry said that the applicant shall select the icon (Auda) after visiting the Absher portal and fill the following fields: iqama (residency permit) number, date of birth, mobile number, departure city and airport of arrival.

It is not mandatory for the expatriate to have his own Absher account for availing of the service, the ministry said, adding that this facility is to enable expatriates to benefit from this initiative.

The departure will be through the following airports: King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, Prince Muhammad International Airport in Madinah, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam.

Those expatriates who are outside these cities can benefit from the service through entering airport of departure after completion of their travel procedures in sufficient period of time.