Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.
Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.
"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.
A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.
The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.
India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.
The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.
The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.
India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.
'RIDING THE TIGER'
Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.
This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.
A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.
One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.
"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.
McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.
Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.
Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.
"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.
Comments
THERE IS ALREADY A FILM CALLED "THE MESSAGE" DO YOU HAVE PATIENCE TO WATCH?
THERE IS ALREADY A FILM CALLED THE MESSAGE
Let this jungli ignorant ask his PAKODA Janata Party (PJP) LEADER who financed the film Padmavat.
Prophet Muhammed is the last and final messenger of ALLAH, Who conveyed the message of Oneness of GOD almighty who is worthy of Worship....God sent many prophets including Abraham, moses, jesus and many others to convey this message prior to the last prophet of Mankind... Prophet Muhammad pbuh is not just for muslims but he came to convey to the whole of Mankind. Many people in arabia were worshipping manmade gods like idols, statues, images and animals instead of TRUE ONE GOD (which is NA TASYA PRATIMA ASTI).
Quran is the book revealed to Prophet Muhammad pbuh which is unchanged since its revelation... I request non muslims to Open up the QURAN ( U can also try quranproject online) to understand WHO GOD is? If U are honest in looking for the CREATOR of all that exist ... U will surely find him . Then
It is very EASY to find out how such criminal evil minded politicians are PLAYING in your minds... to keep away from the REAL issues of the SOCIETY>>>
A film already exists. The Message. Plz watch it.
Oye Minister Ji, Y Prophet Mohammed is coming into this picture. Dont dare to create communal voilence by shitting thru your mouth. Tomorrow you will say about "Jesus" too. Blast the guy who made padmavati, dont create communal tension by commenting non-related matter here. Indian public wasting money on films, if public stops watching no film will make money & every star will be like a common man. We as people should understand. Better dont watch any movie, let all starts come to common level.
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