Imran Khan now marries his spiritual guide Bushra Maneka

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

Washington, May 20: The United States recorded another 1,536 coronavirus deaths over the past 24 hours, the Johns Hopkins University tracker said.

That figure, tallied as of 8:30 pm (0030 GMT), raises to 91,845 the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the US.

The US tops the global rankings both for the highest death toll and the highest number of infections, with more than 1.5 million cases.

Washington, Feb 12: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would sign a trade deal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi if 'it was the right one'.

The two countries have been trying to reach a limited trade pact with lower tariffs, but talks have run into problems over issues with data privacy and e-commerce controls.

Trump further said that he is looking forward to his visit to India later this month where millions of people would welcome him. "He (Modi) is a great gentleman and I look forward to going to India. So, we'll be going at the end of the month," Trump told reporters in his Oval Office, a day after the White House announced dates of his anticipated India trip.

Responding to a question, the president indicated that he is willing to sign a trade deal with India if it is the right one. "They (Indians) want to do something and we'll see... if we can make the right deal, (we) will do it," said Trump, a fortnight ahead of his visit to the country as the 45th US president.

India's new Ambassador to the US, Taranjit Singh Sandhu told PTI that Trump's forthcoming visit is a "reflection of the strong personal rapport" between Trump and Modi. "It also demonstrates their strong desire to take the relationship to new heights," said Sandhu, who had presented his credentials to Trump in Oval Office last week.

Over the last three years, Trump and Modi have developed a personal friendship and in 2019, the duo met four times including their joint address before a strong 50,000 crowd of Indian Americans in Houston.

This year, they have spoken over the phone on two occasions, including the one over the weekend. "Just spoke with Prime Minister Modi," Trump told reporters on Tuesday in response to a question on his India visit.

Excited to travel to India later this month, said Trump referring to his conversation with Modi during which the prime minister apparently told him about the hundreds and thousands of Indians who would be there to welcome him in Ahmedabad.

Trump jokingly told reporters that now he will "not feel good" about the size of the crowd that he addresses in the US which is usually between 40,000 to 50,000. "He (Modi) said we will have millions and millions of people. My only problem is that last night we probably had 40 or 50,000 people... I'm not going to feel so good... There will be five to seven million people just from the airport to the new stadium (in Ahmedabad)," Trump said.

"And you know (it) is the largest stadium in the world. He's (Modi) building it now. It's almost complete and it's the largest in the world," Trump said. The two leaders are expected to joint address a massive public rally at the newly build Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad.

Being built at an estimated cost of USD 100 million, the Motera Stadium with a seating capacity of 100,000 spectators will be the world's largest cricket stadium overtaking the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Australia.