Rakesh Asthana appointed CBI special director

India has jumped past 4.5 lakh coronavirus cases and 14,476 people have succumbed to the viral infection so far. In this backdrop, speaking to IANS in an exclusive interview, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria said India is also vulnerable to second wave of coronavirus and people should continue to follow social distancing, wearing mask and other precautions, after cases begin to decline.

He added that in order to contain the outbreak of Covid-19, a limited lockdown in hotspots, where volume of cases is very high, may be considered along with a micro-plan to prevent leakage of cases from these areas to other non-containment areas. Excerpts of the interview are below:

Q: Reports say China and South Korea are witnessing a second wave of coronavirus infection, what is this second wave, is India also vulnerable to this?

A: When cases come down significantly, people tend to drop their guard against the viral infection, and this leads to the second wave (which means a sudden increase in the number of cases). After cases begin to decline, people should continue to follow the precautions -- continue to maintain social distancing and wear masks regularly. See what happened in Singapore, it was struck by a second wave of coronavirus. Look, what happened in the 1918 pandemic, people dropped their guard and the second wave of viral infection struck back. If people do not follow social distancing then the spike in cases is apparent. We need to take these precautions at least for one year. India is also vulnerable to this second wave.

Q: If Covid-19 cases continue to rise rapidly, do you think we need another lockdown in areas where volume of cases are very high?

A: A large volume of cases is concentrated in specific areas like hotspots, and in order to maintain things in order, we may need a limited lockdown in these areas. This should be followed by a micro-plan which entails extensive testing of people and also extensive contact tracing of people who have got in touch with positive people. Need to ensure there is no leakage of cases from these areas. People from these areas should not mix with others in non-containment areas. This will aid in containing the outbreak of the virus. People who have developed symptoms should get themselves tested, especially in the containment areas.

Q: With more than 4.5 lakh cases and close to 14,500 deaths, do you think India has reached its peak and a decline in cases is prominent?

A: The cases will continue to increase for some time. The doubling time of cases has also increased. But, the cases will also begin to flatten. Though, it is difficult to give an exact time period in this viral infection, it seems, the growth in cases will flatten in the end of July or beginning of August. A decline will come to this viral infection, but it does not mean that people should drop their guard. As a measure, we need to decrease community participation and citizens should continue to follow social distancing. People should get themselves tested. All these efforts will help in preventing people from contracting this virus. These precautions will also prevent us from the second wave, and we must continue to take precautions. The virus has not gone away, it is still lurking.

Q: India has crossed the 4.5 lakh coronavirus cases so far, although our recovery rate is good, but still 10,000 to 15,000 cases are reported daily. Why do cases continue to spiral, what is the reason?

A: We have to remember a few things -- the bulk of cases are in 10 cities, nearly 70 per cent, and if we take into account cases per million population, the number is not very high, as compared with countries including countries in Europe. Many European countries put together still do not add up to the Indian population. Do not compare India to countries like Italy, Spain etc. We need to focus on hotspots, which contribute to between 70 -80 per cent of cases, and we have to identify cases in these areas at an early stage. The population density is very high in these cities. People in lower socio-economic status are highly vulnerable to the viral infection, as many live together in small spaces and there is a lot of mixing of people happening there. Look at the market places, people are not following social distancing and not wearing masks. In fact, many are in close vicinity of each other.

New Delhi, Apr 20: With 1,553 more COVID-19 cases, India's total number of coronavirus cases has reached 17,265, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Monday.

Out of the total cases, 14,175 cases are active, while 2,547 people have been cured/discharged/migrated and 543 deaths have been reported, as per the ministry.

As many as 36 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Maharashtra continues to be the worst-affected state with a total of 4,203 cases. While 507 patients have recovered, 223 deaths have been reported.

Delhi comes next with 2,003 cases, out of which 72 patients have recovered while 45 patients have died.

Rajasthan has confirmed 1,478 cases, out of which 183 people have recovered while 14 patients are dead.

Tamil Nadu has reported 1,477 cases, out of which 411 have recovered and 15 have succumbed to the virus.

Madhya Pradesh has reported 1,407 cases, including 127 patients recovered and 70 patients dead. On the other hand, Uttar Pradesh has 1,084 COVID-19 positive cases.

In Kerala, which reported the country's first COVID-19 case, 402 people have been detected positive for coronavirus.

When it comes to the economy, dark days do loom large over India. May it be growth (lowest since 2008), inflation (highest in the last six years), or revenue collection (lowest in 10 years), the Indian economy is faltering. Hence, there is little leeway that can be assumed in the incumbent Union Budget 2020 (the first of the decade) if the economy needs to be boosted.

While presenting the decade's first Budget for India, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday in Parliament:

Taxation

•             AADHAR based tax verification introduced

•             Review of customs duty exemptions in September 2020

•             GST refund process simplified

•             Electronic invoice implementation in phases

•             New digital scheme for tax litigation

•             PAN to be instantly allotted online against Aadhar

•             Vivaad se Vishwas Scheme: Defaulter to pay only disputed tax and no penalty or interest by 31 March 2020, post which additional amount can be paid till June 2020

•             Measure to promote affordable housing - tax holiday extended for developers

•             Concession on real estate transactions

•             Turnover threshold for audit raised to Rs 5 crore from 1 crore

•             Company audit requirements eased

•             Taxes on ESOPs (employee stock ownership) in start-ups deferred by 5 years

•             100% per cent tax exemption

•             Corporate Tax at 15%

•             Dividend Distribution Tax removed, dividend taxed only for recipients

•             No tax for 0-5 lakh

•             30% above 15 lakh

•             25% for income between Rs 12.5-15 lakh

•             20% for income between Rs 10-12.5 lakh

•             15% for income between Rs 7.5-10 lakh

•             10% for income between Rs 5-7.5 lakh, against the prevailing 20%

•             A new, optional simplified personal income tax regime for those not seeking exemptions

Major steps and initiatives taken by the government in finance

•             3.8 percent fiscal deficit estimated

•             GDP nominal growth expected at 10 per cent

•             Govt to sell part of holding LIC via IPO (initial public offering)- partial LIC disinvestment

•             Partial credit guarantee for NBFCs

•             New law for netting of financial contracts

•             Mechanism to end liquidity crisis

•             NRIs (non resident Indians) can invest in certain govt securities

Aspirational India: Caring society

•             App-based invoice financing loans for MSMEs

•             Amendment to Factoring Regulation Act to aid MSMEs

•             Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDI) Act amendments

•             No criminal liabilities for civil acts

•             Auto-enrolment in universal pension scheme

•             5958 cr allocated for Ladakh

•             30757 cr allocated for J&K

•             Insurance for depositors raised to 5 lakh from 1 lakh

•             Robust mechanisms in place to monitor all PSU banks

•             Depositors’ money safe

•             100 cr for hosting G20 in 2022

•             National Recruitment Agency to be set up

•             Tax payers’ charter to be enshrined in statutes

•             Amendments for Companies Act

•             Tax payer charter proposed to free citizens from tax harassment

•             Businesses should have confidence that system is fair

•             4400 crore allocation for clean air and climate change policy

•             Aim to reduce carbon footprint - Warning to old thermal plants

•             Committed to preserve environment, tackle climate change

•             23150 crore for culture ministry

•             2500 crore for tourism sector

•             Institute of Heritage and Conservation to come up soon

•             Aim to set up more museums

•             5 archaeological sites to be made iconic

•             Proposal to end manual scavenging

•             53700 crore for welfare of STs

•             85000 crore for SCs and OBCs for 2021

•             35600 crore for nutritional schemes

•             Gross enrollment ratio of girls higher than boys in elementary level

•             Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao - tremendous results

Aspirational India: Infrastructure and economic development

•             Further reforms for transparent price discovery for natural gas

•             22000 crore for power sector

•             8000 crore for quantum technology in next 6 years

•             Two national level science schemes

•             Expand Jan Aushadhi Scheme

•             1 lakh gram panchayats to be connected via Bharat Net

•             6000 crore for Bharat Net

•             Data Centre parks to be set up across the country

•             National Gas Grid to be expanded

•             Reforms to help stressed DISCOMS (distribution companies)

•             Delhi-Mumbai Expressway by 2023

•             100 more airports by 2024

•             Plans to energise economic activity along river banks

•             Need to enhance sea ports

•             High Speed Mumbai-Ahmedabad train

•             More Tejas-type trains

•             4 station redevelopment projects under PP model

•             2000 km of strategic highways to be built, 11000 km of track electrification

•             Accelerated development of highways

•             National Logistics Policy to be released soon

•             Big push on infrastructure - 100 lakh crore

•             National Technical Textiles Mission to be set up

•             1480 crore outlay for textile sector

•             27300 crore for industrial development by 2021

•             Digital refund of duties for exporters

•             Boost domestic manufacturing - electronic equipment, mobile phone, medical devices

•             5 new smart cities in collaboration with states

•             Investment clearance cell to be set up for end to end facilitation

•             Entrepreneurship has been the strength of India

Aspirational India: Education and skills

•             High need for medical teachers and paramedics

•             Internships for engineers in panchayats

•             Rs 99300 cr for education sector

•             Large hospitals to be encouraged to start PG courses

•             Attach medical colleges to district hospitals

•             National police university to be set up

•             IND-SAT programme for overseas students for studying in India

•             New courses in 159 universities by 2026

•             Focus on education for jobs

•             Propose a fresh education policy

•             Urban local bodies should give opportunities to new engineers

•             Education needs more finances

Aspirational India: Healthcare

•             AI (artificial intelligence) to be used for Ayushman Bharat Scheme

•             69000 crore for health sector

•             Propose to set up more hospitals

•             Holistic vision for national healthcare

Aspirational India: Agriculture, Irrigation and rural development

•             Need to liberalise farm markets

•             108 million metric tonne milk production by 2021

•             2.83 lakh cr allocation for agriculture and irrigation

•             Propose raising fish production to 200 lakh tonne

•             Zero budget national farming

•             NABARD refinance scheme to be expanded

•             Village credit card scheme

•             Agriculture credit target for 2020 set at Rs 15 lakh crore

•             Village storage scheme for farmers, zero budget natural farming

•             Dhanya Lakshmi scheme for women in villages

•             Krishi Udaan by civil aviation ministry for air transport of such commodities over longer distances

•             Indian railways to set up 'kisan rail'

•             Govt to provide help to geo-tag warehouses

•             Financial inclusion has helped raise farm incomes

•             Plan for 100 water stressed districts

•             Scheme for 20 lakh farmers to set up solar pumps

•             Doubling farm income - model agricultural land leasing act, balanced use of fertilisers, solar pumps for 20 lakh farmers

Budget 2020 and its three focuses

•             Budget's first focus is 'Aspirational India'. Second focus: economic development for all. Third focus: building a caring society.

•             FDI at 284 billion dollars, achieved 7.84% growth

•             GST formalised the economy

•             Efficiency gained in logistics

•             16 lakh new tax payers added

•             Fundamentals of economy hold strong

•             Scaled up implementation of pro-poor schemes

Key challenges FM faces

•             India needs to grow by 9 per cent to 10 per cent a year to become the $5 trillion economy by 2024, as projected by the government. The government is now forecasting growth will come in at 5 per cent

•             The IMF, which had originally predicted 6.1 per cent growth for India in 2019, has revised that downwards to 4.8 per cent

•             The government’s likely to miss its fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal year of 3.3 per cent and hike its target to as much as 4 per cent for the next financial year

•             India will struggle to achieve 5 per cent GDP growth in 2020 - Economist Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University

•             Investment is forecast to grow at less than 1 per cent -- the lowest since 2004-05

•             India's unemployment rate rose to 7.5 per cent during September-December 2019 quarter, according to data released by think-tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy