New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.
CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.
About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.
Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.
While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.
In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.
"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.
Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.
On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).
The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.
"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.
CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.
A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.
On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.
The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.
Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.
Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.
"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.
Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.
"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.
"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.
Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.
To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.
The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.
Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.
Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.
Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.
Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.
Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.
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Ella sahodarammarkk oru advise, nanga nanga penagitt nangalo onnamatho dushman BJP gellum pole aakiranda, please please ninga ellarum onnaitt genduro chance ullo nangalo oru candidate barumpole aakonu, nangalo raya innoru UP do pole aakiranda
Brother,
Being in respectable position as a minister, he should have thought twice before making a statement. If somebody scribbles against him or speaks against him in social media like Fb and whatsapp let him file a case against them. Or let him condemn them. ಇವರನ್ನು ಟೀಕಿಸಿದವರೆಲ್ಲ ಢೋಂಗಿ ಮಾಡಿ ಗಲ್ಫ್ ಗೆ ಹೋದವರಾ? . ಧಾರ್ಮಿಕ ಕಾರ್ಯಕ್ರಮದಲ್ಲಿ ಮಾತನಾಡುವಾಗ ಸ್ವಲ್ಪ ಚಿಂತಿಸಿ ಮಾತನಾಡಿದರೆ ಅವರ ಘನತೆಗೆ ಒಳ್ಳೆಯದು.
In next election, people will decide who is the best loafer and teach him a good lesson. #Ashrafbhai Nxt Mla #UTK Koragajjana gudige
UT Khader Saab. Most of the NRIs from your region know very well that some of your opponents are not just loafers but are ugliest creatures and communal goons. But you don’t lose cool and respond to them in public. Let them go to hell. We are with you. You are a role model for many. So kindly don’t react to the loafers in their own language.
My humble request to UTK is to ignore the cheap level criticism by communal goons. Be it Bajrangis or SDPI. They really don’t deserve the attention of a great social worker and politician like UTK.
UT Khader has not twisted his statement. He never said that all NRIs are Dongi Maadi Gulf ge hodavaru. He said that Dongi Maddi gulf ge hodavaru trying to teach him how to live. And he doesn’t care them. That’s true. Nirva Modi and Vijay Malya also included in dongi parties.
ಯು. ಟಿ ಖಾದರ್ ಓರ್ವ ಶಾಸಕ ಹಾಗೂ ಸಚಿವ ಎಂಬ ಕಾರಣಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ಅವರನ್ನು ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಜಾತಿ, ಮತ, ಧರ್ಮ ಪಂಗಡದವರು ಅವರವರ ಧಾರ್ಮಿಕ ಕಾರ್ಯಕ್ರಮಗಳಿಗೆ ಆಹ್ವಾನಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಜನ ಪ್ರತಿನಿಧಿ ಎಂಬ ನೆಲೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಖಾದರ್‌ರವರು ದೇವಸ್ಥಾನ, ದೈವಸ್ಥಾನ, ಚರ್ಚು, ಮಸೀದಿ, ಉರೂಸ್, ಸುನ್ನಿ, ಎಪಿ, ಈಕೆ, ಸಲಫಿ, ಜಮಾತೆ ಇಸ್ಲಾಂ ಎಂಬ ಬೇಧ ಬಾವ ಇಲ್ಲದೆ ಭಾಗವಹಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಅವರವರ ನಂಬಿಕೆಗಳನ್ನು ಗೌರವಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಅಂತೆಯೇ ಕೆಲ ದಿನಗಳ ಹಿಂದೆ ತಮ್ಮ ಕ್ಷೇತ್ರದ ಕೊರಗಜ್ಜ ಕಾರ್ಯಕ್ರಮದಲ್ಲೂ ಭಾಗವಹಿಸಿದ್ದರು. ಪ್ರತೀ ವರ್ಷವೂ ಅವರು ಆಹ್ವಾನಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ ಮತ್ತು ಖಾದರ್ ಭಾಗವಹಿಸಿತ್ತಾರೆ ಇದನ್ನೇ ನೆಪವಾಗಿಸಿಕೊಂಡು ಕೆಲವರು ವಿದೇಶದಿಂದ ಸಾಮಾಜಿಕ ಜಾಲತಾಣದ ಮೂಲಕ ನಿರಂತರ ಖಾದರ್‌ರವರನ್ನು ಅತ್ಯಂತ ಹೀನಾಯವಾಗಿ ಹಿಯ್ಯಾಳಿಸಲು ತೊಡಗುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಸಾಮಾಜಿಕ ಜಾಲತಾಣದಲ್ಲಿ ಸಕ್ರಿಯರಾಗಿರುವವರು ಅದನ್ನು ಗಮನಿಸಿರಬಹುದು. ಖಾದರ್‌ರವರನ್ನು ಹಿಯ್ಯಾಳಿಸಲು ಅವರು ಬಳಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ಶಬ್ದ ಮತ್ತು ಭಾಷೆ ಯಾರನ್ನೂ ಒಮ್ಮೆ ರೊಚ್ಚಿಗೆಬ್ಬಿಸುವಷ್ಟು ಕೆಟ್ಟದ್ದಾಗಿರುತಿತ್ತು. ಅದಕ್ಕೆ ಪ್ರತಿಕ್ರಿಯೆಯಾಗಿ ಬರುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ಬರಹಗಳೂ ಅಷ್ಟೇ ಪ್ರಚೋದನಾತ್ಮಕ ವಾಗಿರಿತ್ತಿತ್ತು.
ಈ ಎಲ್ಲಾ ವಿಚಾರವನ್ನು ಉಲ್ಲೇಖಿಸುತ್ತಾ, ಅವರಿಗೇ ಸಂಬಂಧಿಸಿ ಉರೂಸ್ ಸಮಾರಂಭದ ವೇದಿಕೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಖಾದರ್‌ರವರು... "ಊರಲ್ಲಿ ಮೋಸಮಾಡಿ ವಿದೇಶಕ್ಕೆ ಹೋಗಿ ಕುಳಿತು ನನಗೆ ಬುದ್ದಿ ಹೇಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ನಾನು ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಕಡೆ ಹೋಗಿದ್ದೇನೆ, ಹೋಗುತ್ತೇನೆ .. ನಾನು ತಪ್ಪಿದರೆ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ತಿದ್ದಲು ಉಲೆಮಾಗಳಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ಈ ಲೋಫರ್ ಗಳಿಂದ ನಾನು ಪಾಠ ಕಲಿಯುವ ಅಗತ್ಯವಿಲ್ಲ...." ಎಂದು
ಹೇಳಿದ್ದಾರೆ.
ಈ ವಿಡಿಯೋದ ತುಣುಕನ್ನು ವೈರಲ್ ಮಾಡಿ ವಿದೇಶದಲ್ಲಿರುವ ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಪ್ರವಾಸಿಗಳನ್ನು ಖಾದರ್ ಅವಮಾನ ಮಾಡಿದ್ದಾರೆ ಎಂದು ಬಿಂಬಿಸಲು ಪ್ರಯತ್ನಿಸುತ್ತಿರುವುದನ್ನು ನಾವು ಕಾಣುತ್ತಿದ್ದೇವೆ. ಈಗಲು ಕೆಲವರು ಖಾದರ್ ವಿರುಧ್ಧದ ತಮ್ಮ ಬರಹ ಹಾಗೂ ವಾಯ್ಸ್ ಮೆಸ್ಸೇಜುಗಳಲ್ಲಿ ತೀರಾ ಕೆಟ್ಟ ಶಬ್ಧ ಭಾಷೆ ಬಳಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ಸಾಮಾಜಿಕ ಜಾಲತಾಣಗಳಲ್ಲಿ ಸಾರ್ವಜನಿಕ ಮರ್ಯಾದೆಯನ್ನು ಮೀರಿ ನಡೆಯುತ್ತಿರು ಖಾದರ್ ಪರ ವಿರೋಧ ಚರ್ಚೆಗಳು ಸಮುದಾಯದ ಮಾನ ಹರಾಜು ಹಾಕುತ್ತಿದೆ ಇದು ಇಲ್ಲಿಗೇ ನಿಲ್ಲಲಿ ಎಂಬುದು ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಪ್ರಜ್ಞಾವಂತ ಮುಸ್ಲಿಮರ ಅಪೇಕ್ಷೆ.
UTK has insulted innocent loafers by calling communal goons as loafers
Mr. U T Khader,
Please do not twist your statement. You clearly made a statement " Dongi maadi gulfge hodavaru". Even i was a huge admirer of you till date for your simple nature and work which you have done during your tenure as a minister and MLA. But that one statement has made a big difference. I watched the video 2 to 3 times to check about the background. You were referring to a group which conducts meeting in hills(gudde) under torch light. But hope you remember that same group was in your favor when you first contested for bye-election after your father's demise. My request is not to have over confidence, which may result in ego and ultimately result in losing. So many egoistic emperors in the world have lost their empire and power. Therefore, you are not a match at all. If you want to condemn a particular group or party, name it and condemn it in specific & do not make generalized statement. Your statement of "DONGI MAADI GULFGE HOGIDDU" has hurt the sentiments of NRI community who have come here away from their families to earn a livelihood.
Kindly take your time to tender an apology for your words. May Almighty Allah bless you with good health and strength to serve the society and community in a better way.
I think in this state election only one thing will happen for sure "Ibbara Jagala Muraneyavanige Laaba"...
Last year Sangh Parivar leaders were hurt when UT Khader said those who oppose constitution should be hit with slipper. This clearly proved that they oppose constitution. Now some SDPI leaders are hurt when UT Khader said that he wants to learn lesson from Ulema and not from loafer or a person who avoids work and spends time doing useless things. This also proved who are loafers.
“Loafer” is not an abusive or derogatory word. “Communal” is more abusive and insulting word compared to “Loafer”.
Election won't decide anyone's fate. Fate will be decided by the Creator. Our prayers are with self-less politicans like UT Khader.
Feel very sad to see some fringe groups unnecessarily pulling the legs of an honest politician in the name of religion. When I embraced Islam several years ago Muslims used to spend time by fighting each other on religious matters and absurd rituals like Urus, Maulid, ratheeb etc. Now Muslims are fighting with each other by forming political parties. When these Muslims will learn lessons? When they realise their responsibilities? When they stop petty politics?
First of all loafer is not an abusive word. It just means an idle person or a ‘poli huduga’ in Kannada. But the uneducated loafers do not know the meaning of loafer i think. That’s why they making it a big issue.
Dikkara ninage Mr Khader
Bara barutha raayara kudure katthe yaayithu.....
Khader bhai... muslim community had very good hope on you & supported you on full extent... But you are going towards normal politician behind money & seat.... SUPPORT doesnt mean that only to muslims... A true leader will treat all community fair & equally... which congress & other party leaders couldnt do... Instead you are blaming our muslim brothers without having basic knowledge.... Politician doesnt understand normal person way of living that how they spend daily life & how much efforts they are taking to fulfill their family needs...
In sha allah your fate will be decided in this election..
Let the Election results tell who are loafers and cheaters In sha Allah.
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