India to grow 7.3% this fiscal, 7.6% in next: ADB

Agencies
April 11, 2018

New Delhi, Apr 11: India's economic growth is expected to rebound to 7.3 per cent this fiscal and further to 7.6 per cent in 2019-20 with increased productivity post GST and investment revival due to banking reform, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said today.

The economy grew 6.6 per cent in the last fiscal as it battled the lingering effects of demonetisation in 2016, businesses adjusting to Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017, and a subdued agriculture. The ADB's growth projection of 7.3 per cent this fiscal is in line with that of rating agency Fitch, but a tad lower than RBI's forecast of 7.4 per cent.

In its Asian Development Outlook, 2018, Manila-based ADB said the growth will pick up as the new tax regime improves productivity and as banking reform and corporate deleveraging take hold to reverse a downtrend in investment.

"In sum, growth is forecast to pick up to 7.3 per cent in FY2018 on improved rural consumption, a modest uptick in private investment, and less drag from net exports. Urban consumption growth will remain stable, and impetus from public investment modest," it said.

Growth is expected to pick up further to 7.6 per cent in FY2019 as efforts to strengthen the banking system and continued corporate deleveraging are likely to bolster private investment.

"Also set to catalyse growth are benefits from the GST as it mitigates geographic fragmentation and adds revenue to the exchequer, as well as further progress on fiscal consolidation and reform to promote FDI," it said.

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) said the prospects for policy stimulus remain limited and there is risk of tight interest rate regime.

"The deferment of fiscal consolidation, upside risks to inflation, and expected hikes in US interest rates in 2018 squeeze maneuvering room for policy rate cuts to stimulate growth. At the same time, the odds of a rate hike are low with the central bank indicating tolerance for slightly higher inflation and recognition of the need to nurture recovery. Consequently, the status quo is likely to hold in FY2018, albeit with some risk of monetary tightening," it said.

It projected inflation to average 4.6 per cent in FY2018 (2018-19), rising to 5.0 per cent in FY2019 with further firming of global commodity prices and strengthening of domestic demand.

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Well Wisher
 - 
Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018

Dear CD,

Please do no publish fake news. Indian economy in distress. MNCs are worried to invest in India because of unexperienced political party currently ruling India.

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News Network
April 4,2020

New Delhi, April 4: With 355 new cases reported in the last 12 hours, India's tally of coronavirus positive cases rose to 2,902, said the ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Saturday.

Out of 2,902 cases, 2,650 are active cases and 184 have been cured or discharged or have migrated.

The total number of deaths reported due to the disease rose to 68 on Saturday.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Maharashtra is the worst-hit state with 423 cases. Tamil Nadu is the next most affected state with 411 cases.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Delhi also rose to 386.

The Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi has emerged as a hotspot for COVID-19 after several positive cases from across India were linked to the gathering including deaths in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana.

An FIR was earlier registered against Tablighi Jamaat head Maulana Saad and others under the Epidemic Disease Act 1897, in the national capital.

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News Network
January 28,2020

Kolkata, Jan 28: West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee Tuesday said she is ready for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the issue of Citizenship Amendment Act but the Centre has to first withdraw the contentious law.

Banerjee said protesting against the decisions of the centre doesn't make opposition parties anti-national and iterated that she will not implement CAA, NRC or NPR in the state.

"It is good that the prime minister is ready for talks but the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) must be revoked first. They (Centre) did not call an all-party meeting before taking a decision on Kashmir and CAA.

"We are ready for talks but first withdraw this Citizenship Amendment Act," Banerjee, a staunch critic of the BJP, said addressing a protest programme against CAA through paintings.

The West Bengal assembly had on Monday passed a resolution against the CAA to become the fourth state after Kerala, Punjab and Rajasthan, to do so. The state assembly had on September 6, 2019, passed a resolution against the NRC.

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News Network
January 9,2020

Mumbai, Jan 9: India's weddings are famously lavish -- lasting days and with hundreds if not thousands of guests -- but this season many families are cutting costs even if it risks their social standing.

It is symptomatic of a sharp slowdown in the world's fifth-largest economy, with Indians spending less on everything from daily essentials to once-in-a-lifetime celebrations.

Growth has hit a six-year low and unemployment a four-decade high under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Prices are rising too, squeezing spending on everything from shampoo to mobile data.

Chartered accountant Palak Panchamiya, for example, has already slashed the budget on her upcoming Mumbai nuptials by a third, trimming spending on clothing and the guest list.

"Initially I chose a dress that cost 73,000 rupees ($1,000)," Panchamiya told news agency as she picked through outfits at a recent marriage trade fair.

"But my partner felt it was too expensive, and so now I am here reworking my options and looking for something cheaper."

India's massive wedding industry is worth an estimated $40-50 billion a year, according to research firm KPMG.

The celebrations can last a week and involve several functions, a dazzling variety of cuisines, music and dance performances, and lots of gifts.

Foreigners can even buy tickets to some events.

But these days, except for the super-rich -- a recent Ambani family wedding reportedly cost $100 million -- extravagance is out and frugality is in as families prioritise saving.

"Earlier Indian weddings were like huge concerts, but now things have changed," said Maninder Sethi, founder of Wedding Asia, which organises marriage fairs around the country.

Cracks emerged in 2016 when the Indian wedding season, which runs from September to mid-January, was hit by the government's shock withdrawal of vast amounts of banknotes from circulation in a bid to crack down on undeclared earnings.

Mumbai-based trousseau maker Sapna Designs Studio shut for months as the economy was turned on its head by Modi's move.

"No exhibitions were happening and there were no avenues for us to sell either," said Vishal Hariyani, owner of the clothing studio.

Hopes for a recovery proved short-lived when the cash ban was followed by a botched rollout of a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) in 2017 that saw many small-scale businesses close.

Since then, keeping his studio afloat has been a challenge, with consumers increasingly reluctant to spend too much, says Hariyani.

"We customise our clothes as per their budgets, and now week-long weddings have been converted to just a 36-hour ceremony," he told news agency.

"We have to pay GST, pay workers and even offer discounts to customers," he added.

"The whole economy has slowed down and reduced spending on weddings is a by-product of that. Everyone except the super-rich are affected," Pradip Shah from IndAsia Fund Advisors told news agency.

"It is reflective of how sombre the mood is," he said.

In a country where families traditionally spend heavily on weddings -- including taking on debt in some cases -- the downturn is also a source of sadness and shame, with elaborate celebrations often seen as a measure of social status.

"We haven't even invited our neighbours. It is embarrassing but the current situation doesn't offer us much respite," 52-year-old Tara Shetty said ahead of her son's wedding.

"In my era, we always spent a lot and had thousands of people attending the weddings," she explained.

"My wedding was supremely grand, and now my son's is the polar opposite."

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