Rahul attacks PM on currency shortage, says country in grip of ‘note ban’ terror again

New Delhi, May 9: With 3,320 coronavirus cases and 95 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, India's COVID-19 cases rose to 59,662 on Saturday, informed the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total number of active cases in the country now stands at 39,834 while the number of cured/discharged/migrated stands at 17,847.

The country has reported 1,981 deaths so far, added the Ministry.

Maharashtra has the highest number of cases with 19, 063 followed by Gujarat with 7,402 cases and Delhi with 6,318 cases.

Meanwhile, the country continues to remain in a lockdown slated to end on May 17.

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Bengaluru, Mar 23: Indian stocks plunged over 9% on Monday, as the rapidly spreading coronavirus pandemic sent major states including the country's capital into a lockdown amid increasing fears that outbreak could bring world economies to a grinding halt.

The NSE Nifty 50 index slipped 9.17% to 7,937.75 by 0408 GMT, while the S&P BSE Sensex was 9.42% lower at 27,093.24.

Over the weekend in India, the virus drove several companies to shut operations and the government sent states into lockdowns, bringing normal life to a grinding halt.

"Panic has gone up domestically because of the lockdown situation," said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.

"There is fear that the situation will not be brought under control soon."

The rupee hit a fresh record low of 76.05 against the dollar, as a flight into cash and worries about tightening liquidity boosted demand for the world's reserve currency.

Meanwhile, global markets crumbled, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan sliding nearly 4% as the global death toll climbed to over 14,000, further battering economic activity, and raising fears of a global recession.

After market hours on Friday, the Securities and Exchange Board of India halved position limits for certain stock futures, restricted short-selling of index derivatives and raised margin rates for some shares to curb "abnormally high" volatility amid the pandemic.

In domestic trading, the Nifty PSU Bank Index plunged 8%, while the Nifty bank index crashed nearly 10%.

The Nifty Auto Index slid 9% after several carmakers over the weekend suspended production due to the virus.