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Mumbai, Jan 10: India’s oil demand growth is set to overtake China by mid-2020s, priming the country for more refinery investment but making it more vulnerable to supply disruption in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

India’s oil demand is expected to reach 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024 from 4.4 million bpd in 2017, but its domestic production is expected to rise only marginally, making the country more reliant on crude imports and more vulnerable to supply disruption in the Middle East, the agency said.

China’s demand growth is likely to be slightly lower than that of India by the mid-2020s, as per IEA’s China estimates given in November, but the gap would slowly become bigger thereafter.

“Indian economy is and will become even more exposed to risks of supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties and the volatility of oil prices,” the IEA said in a report on India’s energy policies.

Brent crude prices topped USD 70 a barrel on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, putting pressure on emerging markets such as India. Like the rest of Asia, India is highly dependent on Middle East oil supplies with Iraq being its largest crude supplier.

India, which ranks No 3 in terms of global oil consumption after China and the United States, ships in over 80 per cent of its oil needs, of which 65 per cent is from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA said.

The IEA, which coordinates release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) among developed countries in times of emergency, said it is important for India to expand its reserves.

REFINERY INVESTMENTS

India is the world’s fourth largest oil refiner and a net exporter of refined fuel, mainly gasoline and diesel.

India has drawn plans to lift its refining capacity to about 8 million bpd by 2025 from the current about 5 million bpd.

The IEA, however, forecasts India’s refining capacity to rise to 5.7 million bpd by 2024.

This would make “India a very attractive market for refinery investment,” IEA said.

Drawn to India’s higher fuel demand potential, global oil majors like Saudi Aramco, BP, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and Total are looking at investing in India’s oil sector.

Saudi Aramco and ADNOC aim to own a 50 per cent stake in a planned 1.2-million bpd refinery in western Maharashtra state, for which land is yet to be acquired.

Kolkata, May 19: The super cyclonic storm 'Amphan' in west-central Bay of Bengal is likely to weaken into an 'extremely severe cyclonic storm' by noon on Tuesday, the Met department said here.

The system, which was situated 670 km south-southwest of Digha in West Bengal, is very likely to move north-northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal, and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts in the afternoon or evening of Wednesday as a 'very severe cyclonic storm', the Met department said.

The weatherman said that 'Amphan' is expected to cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts between Digha in West Bengal and Hatiya islands in Bangladesh on May 20 as a very severe cyclonic storm, after losing some steam as it approaches landfall, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 180 kmph.

Gale wind speeds reaching 240 to 250 kmph were prevailing over west-central and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal, the Met office said, adding, it will gradually reduce to 200 to 210 kmph gusting to 230 kmph by Tuesday evening.

The Met department, which has issued an "orange message" for West Bengal, warned of extensive damage in Kolkata, Hooghly, Howrah, South and North 24 Parganas and East Midnapore districts.

There is likely to be disruption of rail and road link at several places, uprooting of communication and power poles and extensive damage to all types of 'kutcha' houses, the weatherman said.

There is also likelihood of massive harm to standing crops, plantations and orchards, the Met office said.

Wind speeds along and off the coastal areas of West Bengal will reach 45 to 55 kmph with gusts of 65 kmph from Tuesday afternoon, and will gradually increase becoming gale wind speeds reaching 75 to 85 kmph with gusts up to 95 kmph from May 20 morning along and off districts of North and South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore, Kolkata, Howrah and Hooghly, Regional Met Director G K Das said.

"It will gradually increase thereafter becoming 110 to 120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph over West Midnapore, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata and wind speeds of 165 to 175 kmph gusting to 195 kmph over the districts of North and South 24 Parganas and East Midnapore from the afternoon to night of May 20," Das said.

Under its impact, the coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal, including North and South 24 Parganas, Kolkata, East and West Midnapore, Howrah and Hooghly are likely to experience light to moderate rain at many places with heavy downpour at isolated places on Tuesday, he said.

On Wednesday, rainfall will occur in many places over the districts of Gangetic West Bengal, with extremely heavy rain at one or two places in Kolkata, Howrah, East Midnapore, North and South 24 Parganas and Hooghly districts, he said.