Rename Aligarh Muslim University after Raja Mahendra Pratap: Haryana FM

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, May 18: The nationwide tally of COVID-19 cases crossed one lakh on Monday with more people testing positive for the deadly virus in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and other states, even as a much-relaxed fourth phase of the lockdown began with restarting of market complexes, autos, taxis and inter-state buses in various parts of the country.

The death toll due to COVID-19 crossed the 3,000-mark too.

With an aim to reboot numerous locked down economic activities, authorities across the country ordered reopening of markets, intra-state transport services and even of barber shops and salons in some states, barring in containment zones.

However, schools, colleges, theatres, malls and religious gatherings are among those that would remain shut down, at least till May 31.

India has been under a lockdown since March 25, which was first supposed to be for 21 days or toll April 14, but was later extended till May 3, then further till May 17 and now for another two weeks till May 31.

However, a number of relaxations have been given in the current fourth phase, while states and union territories have also been granted significant flexibility for deciding the red, orange or green zones in terms of the quantum and severity of the virus spread.

In its morning 8 AM update, the Union Health Ministry put the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases 96,169 and the death toll at 3,029.

It also said that 36,824 people have so far recovered from the infection.

However, a news agency tally of figures announced by different states and UTs as of 9.40 PM put the number of those having tested positive for the infection at 1,00,096, with a death toll of 3,078 and recoveries at 38,596 across the country.

Maharashtra topped the nationwide tally with over 35,000 confirmed cases and 1,249 deaths, followed by Tamil Nadu with 11,760 confirmed cases and 81 deaths.

Gujarat has also reported 11,746 confirmed cases, while its death toll is higher than that of Tamil Nadu at 694.

Delhi has also crossed the 10,000 mark in terms of the number of confirmed cases, while its death toll has now reached 160.

Gujarat, during the day, recorded 366 new COVID-19 cases and 35 deaths, including 31 from the worst-hit Ahmedabad, taking the state's case count to 11,746 and the number of fatalities to 694, a health department official said.

Maharashtra reported 2,033 new cases, taking the tally to 35,058.

This was the second consecutive day when the state has reported more than 2,000 COVID-19 cases.

Mumbai alone reported 1,185 fresh cases and 23 more deaths, taking the total count of the city to 21,152 and the fatalities to 757.

Of the 1,185 new cases, 300 samples were tested positive in private laboratories between May 12 and 16.

Kerala also saw 29 new cases -- all but one being returnees from overseas and other states --  raising concerns about the state witnessing a possible third wave of the dreaded virus infection.

The state was first to report the virus infection, but at least twice it has already been seen as having flattened the curve of the infection.

The nationwide count of confirmed infections incidentally crossed the crucial one-lakh mark on a day when the fourth phase of the nationwide lockdown kicked in with several relaxations for economic and public activities, barring in containment zones or areas identified as serious hotspots of the virus infection.

Revising its strategy for COVID-19 testing, ICMR also said on Monday that returnees and migrants who show symptoms for influenza-like illness will be tested for coronavirus infection within seven days of ailment and stressed that no emergency clinical procedure, including deliveries, should be delayed for lack of testing.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in its revised strategy for coronavirus testing in India also added that all hospitalised patients who develop symptoms for influenza-like illness (ILI) and frontline workers involved in containment and mitigation of COVID-19 having such signs will also be tested for coronavirus infection through RT-PCR test.

Besides, asymptomatic direct and high-risk contacts of a confirmed case are to be tested once between day five and day 10 of coming in contact, the new document stated.

Asymptomatic contacts of a confirmed case were being tested once between day five and day 14.

The Health Ministry also said that for every one lakh population, there are 7.1 coronavirus cases in India so far as against 60 globally.

It also said the recovery rate of coronavirus cases in India stood at 38.39 per cent.

Besides, India also joined nearly 120 countries at a crucial conference of the World Health Organisation in pushing for an impartial and comprehensive evaluation of the global response into the coronavirus crisis as well as to examine the origin of the deadly infection.

Since the first case of the deadly coronavirus was reported in China last December, more than 47 lakh people have tested for this virus across the world and over 3 lakh have lost their lives.

India is the 11th most affected country, while the US tops the chart with over 14.9 lakh confirmed cases so far.

China's official tally of confirmed infections is less than 84,000, while it has reported more than 4,600 deaths.

New Delhi, Mar 21: Novel coronavirus cases in India rose to 258 on Saturday after 35 fresh cases were reported in various parts of the country, according to the Health Ministry.

Among the 258 are 39 foreign nationals, including 17 from Italy, three from the Philippines, two from the UK, one each belonging to Canada, Indonesia and Singapore.

The total figure also includes four deaths reported from Delhi, Karnataka, Punjab and Maharashtra.

"The total number of active COVID-19 cases across India stands at 231 so far," the ministry said, adding that 23 others have been cured/discharged/migrated while four have died.

Delhi has, so far, reported 26 positive cases, which include one foreigner, while Uttar Pradesh has recorded 24 cases, including one foreigner.

Maharashtra has 52 cases, including three foreigners, while Kerala has recorded 40 cases, which include seven foreign nationals.

Karnataka has 15 coronavirus patients. The number of cases in Ladakh rose to 13 and Jammu & Kashmir four. Telangana has reported 19 cases, which include 11 foreigners.

Rajasthan has also reported 17 cases, including two foreigners. Gujarat has reported seven cases so far.

Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Uttarakhand have reported three cases each.

West Bengal, Odisha and Punjab each reported two cases while Puducherry, Chhattisgarh and Chandigarh reported one case each.

In Haryana, there are 17 cases, which include 14 foreigners.