Dalit man beaten to death in Gujarat, 5 held

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

Jammu, Jan 15: Fresh landslides kept the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway shut for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, leaving over 5000 vehicles stranded.

"There were four fresh landslides in Digdol and Panthiyal belts on the highway in Ramban district. The traffic on the highway remained closed for the third day today", a police officer told PTI.

On Monday, heavy rains triggered shooting of stones in Moumpassi, Digdole and Panthiyal areas, forcing a suspension of the traffic, the official said.

Snowfall in Kashmir side of the highway, including Jawahar Tunnel, since Sunday has resulted in blockade of the highway.

"No fresh traffic was allowed from Nagrota in Jammu for Kashmir", he said.

As a result of the blockade of the highway, over 5000 vehicles remained stranded at various places en route from Lakhanpur in Kathua district to Banihal belt of Ramban district and also on the Kashmir side.

New Delhi, Apr 15: CPI-M leader Sitaram Yechury has sought a substantial increase in relief spending of the Central government in the fight against coronavirus, saying that there should be cash transfer of Rs 7,500 to families not paying income tax and distribution of free foodgrains to all needy.

In an article in the forthcoming issue of the party's mouthpiece -- People's Democracy -- Yechury said that India ranks among the countries that are testing the least for the coronavirus and testing should be increased rapidly.

Yechury said the financial stimulus package should be raised from the current 0.8 per cent to at least 5 per cent of GDP and States should be provided liberal funding.

"We must ensure that there are no starvation deaths that occur in our country. It is, therefore, imperative that the government must immediately implement a Rs 7,500 ex gratia cash transfer to all non-income tax-paying families and resort to universal distribution of free foodgrains to all needy people," Yechury said.

He said all MGNREGA workers should be paid wages irrespective of work and employers should be assisted financially to protect workers from job losses and wage cuts and arrangement should be made for the return of migrant workers to their homes.

"Testing is of crucial importance to identify the clusters where the pandemic is spreading in order to isolate and insulate them to contain the community spread. Inadequate testing does not provide us with such information. It is dangerous both for the inability to contain the spread and to identify the critical areas," the article said.

It said that till April 9, India's record of testing was 0.092 per thousand, while in Germany it was 15.96, Italy 14.43, Australia 12.99, Denmark 10.73 and Canada 9.99. "Unless our testing rate increases substantially, our strength to combat the pandemic will not grow," the article said.

Yechury said that the first case in India was reported on January 30 and "no substantive measures were taken despite this for seven long weeks" until the declaration of the lockdown on March 24.

"As far as the lockdown is concerned, many countries in the world moved with greater urgency - China locked down Wuhan on January 23, the whole of Italy was locked down on March 10, USA declared a national emergency on March 13, Spain on March 14, France on March 17 and UK on March 23," he said.

Yechury said the people were looking forward to the Prime Minister's address to the nation on the last day of the three-week countrywide lockdown.

"These three weeks have thrown up many experiences that need to be addressed urgently in order, both, to strengthen our fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and to protect the lives and survival of crores of our fellow citizens. On none of these issues of vital importance did the Prime Minister have anything substantial to say," he said.