Modi is favourite PM candidate of Muslims for 2019: Shahnawaz

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

New Delhi, Jun 18: The border clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Ladakh broke the brittle quiet – and also the sense of security for anxious Chinese nationals in India who fear a backlash with anti-Chinese sentiment spiralling in the country.

With the high altitude violent face-off in eastern Ladakh’s Galwan Valley spurring hashtags such as “Boycott China” and “Teach Lesson to China” and leading to street protests, the undercurrents of tension were evident.

Wary of being identified, some said they had been reassured by their friends but were still apprehensive for themselves and their families.

"They (Chinese families) don''t want to speak to the media. They are not going out and are worried about their security and well being. Their families are also worried back home," Mohammed Saqib, secretary general of the India China Economic & Cultural Council, told PTI.

He added that his Chinese friends in India been calling him since they heard news about Monday night’s clashes in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed -- the worst military confrontation in five decades -- and expressed concern over growing anti-China sentiments.

A Chinese national from Beijing working in Gurgaon for a Chinese mobile firm initially refused to talk, saying he did not want to speak to the media and later shared his thoughts only on condition of anonymity.

"There is talk of border standoff and tensions, but we know Indians are very warm people and that is why I have told my family that all is fine here and they should not worry," he said.

Another Chinese national working in Gurgaon said he and his family are feeling the stress amid the spiralling conflict between India and China, but many friends have been reassuring him.

"They (Chinese in India) are under a lot of stress naturally. Such a conflict puts a lot of stress as they could bear the brunt and the same applies to Indians in China," B R Deepak, professor at the Centre for Chinese and South East Asian Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University said.

He said it was unfortunate that the border standoff derailed the commemorative programmes aimed at strengthening ties at a time the two countries were gearing to celebrate 70 years of establishment of diplomatic ties.

Experts also feel the border clash is likely to have a significant negative impact on the economic and people to people ties.

There are scores of Chinese in India working in various Chinese firms and also those who are studying in universities like JNU.

About 3,000 Chinese people, doing business or studying in big cities in India, were stranded in India at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, and about half of them returned to China before the lockdown began on March 25.

The Chinese Embassy in New Delhi announced on May 25 that they will arrange for flights to take back students, tourists and businesspersons to five Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Guangzhou.

"It will impact the psychology of the Chinese here. There are 2,000 Chinese firms in various sectors in India which are going to be impacted," Deepak said.

Future investments from the Chinese side could also be impacted, he said.

Moreover, as far as people-to-people contacts are concerned, the number of Chinese students choosing India as a preferred destination is likely to go down, Deepak said.

Alka Acharya, another China expert, said there are two kinds of impacts of such an incident -- short term and medium term.

Usually after the initial nationalistic reaction in the short term things tend to normalise in the medium term, but with such a border clash happening for the first time in decades clearly the resonance would be much more in both India and China, said Acharya, professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, in JNU.

“Due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy, whether India can take a hardline in terms of economics towards China, is a tricky question,” she said.

In the immediate context, there may be a dip in economic ties with calls for boycott of Chinese goods and services, Acharya said.

The manner in which this crisis is resolved will affect how ties will be affected in the medium term, she said.

The headlines have added to the anxiety.

A group of ex-armymen gathered near the Chinese embassy to protest the killing of 20 Indian Army personnel in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley. And another group of around 10 protesters belonging to the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch protested near the Teen Murti roundabout in Central Delhi.

The anti-China sentiment prevalent among the common public is also finding a reflection in government policy with sources saying the Department of Telecom (DoT) is set to ask state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) not to use Chinese telecom gear in its 4G upgradation.

Trade bodies like CAIT are also calling for a boycott of Chinese products.

And Chinese handset maker Oppo cancelled the livestream launch of its flagship 5G smartphone in the country amid protests.

Monday night’s clashes between the Chinese and Indian troops in Galwan Valley significantly escalated the already volatile border standoff between the two countries.

The casualties on the Chinese side are not yet known. However, government sources, citing an American intelligence report, claimed the total number of soldiers killed and seriously wounded could be 35.

New Delhi, Jul 25: Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Saturday attacked the Yogi Adityanath government over its handling of the Covid-19 crisis, saying that at a time when there is an "explosive" rise in cases, the state dispensation's "no test is equal to no corona" policy can lead to a "more frightening situation".

In a letter to the Uttar Pradesh chief minister, the Congress general secretary said that the situation is getting serious and the battle against the pandemic cannot be fought just by publicity and managing news.

Priyanka Gandhi said she hopes the chief minister will take "big and effective" steps that will assure people that the government is committed to protect their lives and they will not be left to God for protection.

"By showing the fear of coronavirus, corruption is thriving. If this is not reined in, the battle against coronavirus will turn into a disaster," Priyanka Gandhi said.

Noting that 2,500 cases of coronavirus were reported in UP on Friday, she said almost all the metros were flooded with Covid-19 cases, but now even the villages were not unaffected by its spread.

"Quarantine centres in UP are in a pathetic state. In some places, the situation is so bad, that people are fearing mismanagement more than the coronavirus. Because of such a scenario, they are not stepping out of their homes for getting tested," Priyanka Gandhi said.

"This is a major failure of the government," she asserted.

The state government by believing in the "no test = no corona" mantra has adopted a low testing policy, she alleged in the letter written in Hindi.

"There is an explosive rise in Covid-19 cases. Till testing will not be increased in a transparent manner, the fight against the pandemic will be incomplete and the situation can become more frightening," she said.

"Your government claimed that there is provision for 1.5 lakh beds, but with only about 20,000 active infected cases, there is a scampering for beds," she said.

If there is a huge crowd in front of the hospitals, then why is the UP government not constructing temporary hospitals on the lines of those set up in Mumbai and Delhi, Priyanka Gandhi asked.

Availing medical facility is the fundamental right of every citizen, she asserted.

"The prime minister is a Member of Parliament from Varanasi, the defence minister is from Lucknow, many other Union ministers are from UP. Why can't temporary hospitals be opened in Varanasi, Lucknow, Agra etc." Priyanka Gandhi asked.

She suggested that temporary hospitals can be operated by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the Army and the paramilitary, or if need be, the DRDO hospital can be brought to Lucknow.

Also, central facilities set up in Delhi can also be used for border districts, Priyanka Gandhi said, adding that their utilisation is not being maximised there.

Noting that home isolation was a good step, she said it should not be implemented in haste.

Informed decisions should be taken on key matters related to home isolation like what will be the arrangement for monitoring patients, who needs to be informed if the patient's condition worsens and what will the medical facilities cost in home isolation, she said.

What will be the arrangement for checking the temperature and oxygen level of the patients in home isolation, she further asked in the letter.

The government should do a complete mapping of it and give complete information at the local level to the public, Priyanka Gandhi said.

The Congress general secretary said that she realises, that often the state government feels that the Congress' suggestions are given only from a political point of view.

"This was evident from the response of your government while we were trying to get buses for UP workers who were walking home," she said.

"I want to assure you once again that protecting the health and life of the people of Uttar Pradesh is our biggest sentiment at this time. We are continuously striving with constructive support and a spirit of service," she said in the letter.

At this time when the pandemic is growing rapidly, the Congress stands with the people of UP and is ready to give full support to the state government, she said.

Tightening its grip over Uttar Pradesh, Covid-19 claimed a record 50 lives in the state on Friday as the deadly virus infected 2,667 people more in the largest single-day spike till date.