Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Riyadh, Apr 26: The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia has issued an order to partially lift the curfew in all regions of the Kingdom, to become from 9am to 5pm, starting Sunday through Wednesday May 13, while keeping a 24-hour curfew in the holy city of Makkah and in previously isolated neighbourhoods, state news agency (SPA) said early on Sunday.

The order also allowed the opening of some economic and commercial activities, which include wholesale and retail shops in addition to malls.

They can operate for two weeks, beginning on April 29 (Wednesday) until May 13 (Ramadan 6-20), however, certain shops within malls like beauty clinics, barber salons, gyms, cinemas, and restaurants will continue to be restricted from reopening.

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.

Riyadh, Mar 9: Schools and universities will be closed in Saudi Arabia from Monday to control the spread of coronavirus.

The Saudi Ministry of Education said the “preventive and precautionary” measures were recommended by the health authorities and are designed to protect students and staff.

The decision covers all educational institutions, including public and private schools, and technical and vocational training institutions.

“The Minister of Education directed that virtual schools and distance education be activated while the schools are closed to ensure that the educational process continues in an effective and quality manner,” the ministry said.

The Kingdom's Education Minister, Hamad bin Mohammed Al-Asheikh, confirmed that the decision was a precautionary step and said that they are conducting daily and weekly evaluations before returning to school.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Health, Tawfiq Al-Rabiah, confirmed that there have been no coronavirus cases in any educational facility in the Kingdom.

“Thank God, the situation is reassuring, and there has been no case in any educational facility. However, the increasing cases in countries have made us keen to enhance the safety of our sons and daughters. So we coordinated with the Ministry of Education to close the schools temporarily,” he said in a tweet on Sunday.

The education ministry has set up supervision offices to help coordinate the distance learning, and respond to parents’ inquiries.

A new committee set up by the ministry will also ensure the virtual schools are functioning through the distance learning methods provided by the ministry.

These include the virtual school platform (Vschool.sa) and mwterials available from the Apple and Android stores.

It will also provide lessons through the “Ain” TV channeland as well as on YouTube via this link: www.youtube.com/dorosien.

The General Presidency for the Affairs of the Grand Mosque and the Prophet’s Mosque also said on Sunday that it will suspend the visitation programs in its external facilities as part of recommended precautions to prevent the spread of the coronavirus and ensure the safety of visitors.

The facilities include the King Abdulaziz Complex for the Covering of the Holy Kaaba, the Gallery of the Two Holy Mosques, and the Library of the Holy Mosque of Makkah.

“The presidency has taken a series of precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the virus, by intensifying sterilization work that is taking place around the clock, and has been keen on coordination and joint cooperation with all relevant government sectors,” it said in a statement issued on SPA.

It added that these preventive efforts come within the procedures that are being implemented by the Saudi government seeking to combat the spread of the new virus, to protect the people of the Two Holy Mosques in particular, and citizens and residents in the Kingdom in general.