Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Riyadh, Apr 27: A Saudi Arabia-led coalition said on Monday that all parties need to return to the status that existed before the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen declared an emergency in Aden, according to a statement published by Spa.

The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, stresses the need to restore conditions to their previous state following the announcement of a state of emergency by the Southern Transitional Council and the consequential development of affairs in the interim capital (Aden) and some Southern governorates in the Republic of Yemen.

The Coalition urges for an immediate end to any steps contrary to the Riyadh Agreement, and work rapidly toward its implementation, citing the wide support for the agreement by the international community and the United Nations.

The Coalition has and will continue to undertake practical and systematic steps to implement the Riyadh Agreement between the parties to unite Yemeni ranks, restore state institutions and combat the scourge of terrorism. The responsibility rests with the signatories to the Agreement to undertake national steps toward implementing its provisions, which were signed and agreed upon with a time matrix for implementation. The Coalition demands an end to any escalation and calls for return to the Agreement by the participating parties, stressing the immediate need for implementation without delay, and the need to prioritise the Yemeni peoples' interests above all else, as well as working to achieve the stated goals of restoring the state, ending the coup and combatting terrorist organizations.

The Coalition reaffirms its ongoing support to the legitimate Yemeni government, and its support for implementing the Riyadh Agreement, which entails forming a competent government that operate from the interim capital Aden to tackle economic and developmental challenges, in light of natural disasters such as floods, fears of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic outbreak, and work to provide services to the brotherly people of Yemen.

Dubai, May 19: The UAE announced 832 new Covid-19 cases on Monday following 37,844 additional tests, taking the total tally of coronavirus infections in the country to 24,190.

The Ministry of Health and Prevention also reported four additional deaths, taking the death toll to 224. Meanwhile 1,065 patients also recovered after receiving the necessary treatment, taking the total number of recoveries to 9,577, the ministry said.

“We see a daily increase in cases due to the irresponsible behaviour of some people who are not aware of the consequences of not adhering to health guidelines,” said Dr Amna Al Dahak Al Shamsi, official spokesperson of the UAE government.

“The widening circle of infections requires no more than a few violations by just one or two people to completely infect families with the coronavirus,” she said.

“The decision to partially ease restrictions is aimed at achieving a balance between meeting the needs of a segment of society, whose source of income is linked to the commodity trade sector, and between continuing to adhere to the recommended health guidelines, and hence many restrictions and conditions have to be followed.”

However, she also appreciated the citizens and residents adhering to the precautionary measures.

“It is heartening for us to see many families committed to avoiding family gatherings,” she said. “As we prepare for Eid Al-Fitr, we are confident that citizens and residents will continue to adhere to health and preventive guidelines, and serve as role models to the world,” she added.

Change in disinfection programme timings

Officials also announced that the UAE’s National Disinfection Programme will now be in place from 8pm to 6am, starting Wednesday, May 20, until further notice. The scheme currently runs from 10pm until 6am.

Dr Saif Al Dhaheri, spokesman of the National Authority for Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management said the amendment comes in light of the “increased number of Covid-19 cases, and the leniency of some members of society and their indifference to preventive measures”.

Food outlets, cooperative societies, groceries, supermarkets, and pharmacies will continue to operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week during the sterilisation programme period.

Meanwhile meat and vegetable shops and outlets selling fruits, toasters, mills, slaughterhouses, fish, coffee and tea, in addition to shops selling nuts, sweets and chocolate, can operate from 6am until 8pm.

Shopping centres and malls can stay open from 9am to 7pm starting Wednesday, May 20, officials added.

“We stress the importance of all stores and those authorised to operate to adhere to the applicable health and safety procedures, which include ensuring that the percentage of shoppers does not exceed 30 per cent of the total capacity,” said Al Dhaheri.

He also confirmed that children under 12 and those over 60 will not be permitted to enter malls and shopping centres.

“We warn visitors to the centres that the shopping period should not exceed two hours in order to reduce the crowding of shoppers, and to maintain the 30 per cent capacity.”

Eid restrictions

Al Dhaheri urged the public to avoid family visits and gatherings during Eid Al Fitr this year and to instead communicate using online means or by phone. He also stressed that people should refrain from distributing ‘Eid’ money to children.

“With regard to Eid prayers, we stress the importance of adhering to what was mentioned by the Emirates Legal Fatwa Council, which is to pray at home and to take health protection reasons as a legal obligation, a necessity of life, and a national commitment,” he added.

Heftier fines

Officials also announced heftier fines to ensure that the regulations are being adhered to.

“It was clear to us, in light of the follow-up, that there was reckless behaviour from some individuals, along with the insistence of some to commit a certain type of violation as well as indifference,” said Salem Al-Zaabi, acting head of the Public Prosecution for Emergencies, Crisis and Disasters.

The Public Prosecution has decided to update the list of previously announced violations and fines and administrative penalties to “suit the current situation”, he said.

Some of the new fines include:

– Dhs50,000 on educational institutions, cinemas, gym, stores, parks, beaches, pools or supermarkets that do not adhere to coronavirus measures

– Dhs50,000 fine on those who don’t adhere to quarantine restrictions

– Dhs10,000 for organising gatherings with participants also fined Dhs5,000 each

– Dhs5000 for refusing to do a Covid-19 test

– Dhs3,000 for not wearing a mask in public

– Dhs3,000 if more than three people are travelling in one car

– Dhs3,000 for companies failing to adhere to the 30 per cent limit on workforce at office

– Dhs3,000 for not adhering to social distancing

– Dhs3,000 fine for violating restrictions during the disinfection period

Repeat offenders will be referred to the Public Prosecution and can face a criminal trial with the possibility of imprisonment for a period not exceeding six months and/or a fine of at least Dhs100,000.

“The pictures and names of violators will be published in newspapers and media upon the decision of the Public Prosecutor if he deems it necessary,” added Al Zaabi.