Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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Agencies
July 26,2020

Jeddah, Jul 26: The city of Makkah is opening its arms again to welcome pilgrims for the annual Hajj — although only a handful compared with previous years.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this year’s event is limited to about 1,000 pilgrims, all from inside Saudi Arabia, about 700 of whom are expatriates.

Abdullah Al-Kathiri, an Emirati and a recovered COVID-19 patient, postponed his pilgrimage last year because it coincided with his wedding plans. “I’ve heard from many who’ve performed the pilgrimage in past years that it was always a smooth process, even with the massive numbers,” he said. “So you could imagine how it would be with the limited number of pilgrims this year. Surely it will be a great experience.”

Khadija, a Bulgarian expatriate, was overcome with tears when she heard she would be performing Hajj this year. “I didn’t expect they’d accept,” she said. “I’m sure this year’s Hajj will be an exceptional one in all respects.”

Dr. Haifa Yousef Hamdoon, a Tunisian physician in Qassim, is another who did not expect to be accepted because of the low numbers this year. “When I received confirmation of my request, I was overjoyed and couldn’t believe it,” she said.

Mu’taz Mohamed, a Sudanese pilgrim who also lives in Qassim region, praised the preventive and precautionary health measures taken in order to ensure his safety and that of other pilgrims, to enable them to perform the rituals safely.

After completing their arrival procedures, the pilgrims were taken to their accommodation in Makkah, supervised by the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah. They will stay there for four days before beginning their pilgrimage on July 30.

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News Network
May 3,2020

Dubai, May 3: Over 150,000 Indians in the UAE, who wish to return home amid the coronavirus lockdown, have applied through the online registration process to the Indian missions here, according to media reports.

The Indian missions in the country last week opened online registration for the expatriates who wish to fly back home after getting stuck in the country amidst the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.

As of 6 pm on Saturday, we received more than 150,000 registrations, Consul General of India in Dubai Vipul told the Gulf News on Saturday.

A quarter of them want to return to their homeland after losing their jobs, he said.

According to a report in the Khaleej Times on Sunday, about 40 per cent of the applicants who have registered are blue-collared workers and 20 per cent are working professionals.

"Roughly 20 per cent have suffered job losses and about 55 per cent of the total applicants are from Kerala," Neeraj Aggarwal, Consul, Press, Information, Culture was quoted as saying in the report.

Aggarwal said that the figures would change as they are expecting registrations from workers from other states, including Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.

About 10 per cent of the applicants are visit and tourist visa holders who got stranded here due to the ongoing lockdown in India.

India extended the ongoing lockdown by two weeks from May 4 to contain the spread of the coronavirus that has affected nearly 40,000 people in the country.

Aggarwal said that a small number of the applications constitute those from pregnant women and other medical cases.

Since the online registration process was launched, the Consulate's website crashed several times due to the heavy rush of applicants wishing to register to fly back home.

The site has been working fine now though it took a lot of time for it to stabilise in the initial phase due to the heavy traffic, the counsel general said.

He said that the missions here have not yet received any information from the Indian government about the mode of transport of the stranded citizens, the prices of the tickets or how the COVID-19 test results of applicants would be assessed for their journey.

There are high-level discussions going on regarding these things, he said in the report.

Meanwhile, Norka (The Non Resident Keralites Affairs) said it has received a total of 398,000 applications from Keralites across the globe who wish to return home.

"Of which, the highest numbers are from the UAE. At least 175,423 applicants have signed up from the UAE," Norka said in an official statement on Saturday.

It also received 54,305 registrations from Saudi Arabia, 2,437 from the UK, 2,255 from the US, and 1,958 from Ukraine from those who wish to return to India, the Khaleej Times reported.

The coronavirus has infected 13,599 people and claimed 119 lives in the UAE, the Ministry of Health and Prevention said on Saturday.

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January 15,2020

Asia, Jan 15: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Wednesday said that killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani showed the ignorance and arrogance of the United States and asserted that Washington looks at things from their perspective and not keeping the interests of the region in mind."The US looks at things from their perspective, not from the perspective of this region. The killing of Qassem Soleimani shows ignorance and arrogance. 430 Indian cities saw protests against killing of Soleimani," Zarif said at an event.

Hitting out at US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Zarif said that they were the only ones, along with the Islamic State (ISIS) who celebrated the death of Soleimani.

"Who is celebrating Soleimani's killing? President Trump, Pompeo and Daesh (Arabic name of ISIS). You wonder about strange bedfellows?" he said.

Tensions between the US and Iran soared dramatically earlier this month after Washington launched airstrikes at Baghdad International Airport, which killed Soleimani. Tehran retaliated by firing a volley of ballistic missiles at two military bases of US-led coalition forces in Iraq, leading to a strife in the region.

However, Zarif regretted the shooting down of the Ukrainian airline and said it happened because of "tension".

"Nine million people were out in the streets of Iran commemorating Soleimani. You cannot bring out so many people to protest. The shooting down of a plane was a mistake. 180 families are mourning the loss of their dear ones. It happened because of tension," he said.

Asked whether there a chance of a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis, Zarif ruled out negotiating with the US.

"Iran is interested in diplomacy. We are not interested in negotiating with the US. US did not keep its commitments under nuclear deal. We had a US deal and the US broke it. If we have a Trump deal, how long will it last?" he said.

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