CM Yogi officially renames Faizabad district as Ayodhya

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

Thiruvananthapuram, May 22: Domestic flyers arriving in Kerala must undergo strict home quarantine as per the lockdown guidelines, in view of increasing COVID-19 cases in the state, Health Minister K K Shailaja said on Friday.

"Even if the domestic flight services resume, those coming in must remain under strict home quarantine as per the guidelines.

There is no change in that. Most people will be coming from the major hotspots of the country," she said.

Announcing the resumption of domestic flight services from May 25, the Civil Aviation Ministry had indicated on Thursday that it was not in favour of quarantining passengers on short-haul flights.

However, the Assam government has made it mandatory for all air passengers coming to that state to stay in quarantine for 14 days.

Apart from the health department and the local self government institutions, Shailaja said the people of Kerala must also ensure that every returnee to the state remained under strict home quarantine in order to curb the spread of the disease.

"We need to strictly keep under observation all those who come fromoutside the state and make sure that they do not come into contact with others including their family members.

They should be effectively remain under room quarantine at their residence," she said.

The state reported 690 cases after 24 more tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday.

As of now over 80,000 people are under observation across the state.

On the death of a 73-year-old woman, who came from Mumbai, on Thursday, the minister said, "Khadijakuttycame from Mumbai along with three others. She alighted at Chavakkad. Her son who picked her up from there took her to the govt hospital as she was tired. She was given good care."

"However, as her condition worsened, had taken a decision to sent her to the medicalcollege. Her swab test was taken and she was tested positive, but she passed away," Shailaja said.

The minister sounded a word of caution that there would be an increase in cases in the coming days as the influx of people coming from abroad and other states would continue.

"We cannot prevent anyone from coming. They are our brothers and were suffering there. We need to save those who come here and also those who are here," the Minister said.

Shailaja said the southern state had successfully managed the first two phases of the viral outbreak in January and March.

"There were three deaths. But we managed to save the rest of the people including a 93-year-old man," she said.

The Minister further said the situation in the state changed after flight services resumed and the border roads were re-opened after May 7.

"Our fatality rate is low and recovery rate is high.

After May 7, when the flight restrictions were lifted and people from other states started coming in, we reported 188 cases.

At least 90 per cent of the positive cases came from outside and the rest are their contacts," she noted.