Beirut, Apr 5: The novel coronavirus has put global trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.
The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning "the worst is yet to come". But it remains unclear what the pandemic's impact will be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.
Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq:
The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria's nine-year-old war -- Russia and Turkey -- was taking effect.
The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country's northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.
Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with 103 deaths.
The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria -- the Damascus government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib -- to manage the coronavirus threat is key to their credibility.
"This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance," analyst Fabrice Balanche said.
However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.
This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist group, still reeling from the demise of its "caliphate" a year ago, could seek to step up its attacks.
The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which leads a military coalition in support of the government.
That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.
The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-held capital Sanaa on Monday.
Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.
More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of catastrophic proportions.
In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn't allow for adequate aid.
"People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the open," said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.
Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.
Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to make guns fall silent.
Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.
Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.
That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity from foreign conflicts.
A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving high-level attention due to the pandemic.
Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign backers are at each other's throats.
Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.
With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in Iraq.
Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket attacks on bases housing US troops.
Comments
if you think muslim killed million, then forget about you,....even you grand grand father never breath in this world. muslim are generous but if you provoke they will hit with full power even if he was alone, not like you people coward you attack in number like dogs
hope the US nukes muslim lands. Islam is responsible for killing millions
we never find Iran by supporting palestinians in their difficult times , only instigate groups like Hamas to keep entire area boil ,
watch situation sunni muslims in Iraq, syria , yeman... do US or Isreil responsible ? even US interfered , who is the benefeciary...
In Yeman entire sea route is controled by US navy , even then weapons are supplied to houthis.... who is supplying weapons weather US or Iran by the help of US navy.... !
Warriors of Muslim? Nonsense. they are killing so many muslims in Yemen, they are the one who started to fight the sunnis and killing them, they have killed many in Algeria, Lebonan using thei terrorism.
Read history of the their trait before blindly trusting. their statement now is just a political gimmic. if they are so worried about muslims and so powerful and talking about defending Saudi why did they defend palastine why dint they fight israel? why they just watching so many diying muslims children an women and men in palastine where is their power. what we hear nothing bnut lies from them. they will not do anything their aim is to conqer power. Rafida or Rawafid is their name!
Warriors of Muslim? Nonsense. they are killing so many muslims in Yemen, they are the one who started to fight the sunnis and killing them, they have killed many in Algeria, Lebonan using thei terrorism.
Read history of the their trait before blindly trusting. their statement now is just a political gimmic. if they are so worried about muslims and so powerful and talking about defending Saudi why did they defend palastine why dint they fight israel? why they just watching so many diying muslims children an women and men in palastine where is their power. what we hear nothing bnut lies from them. they will not do anything their aim is to conqer power. Rafida or Rawafid is their name!
salute fo the true worrier of muslim, IRAN
you are asking help with american slaves, sorry they are loyal dogs die for them not for muslim brothers.
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