'If Cong, SP have faith in Ali, we have Bajrang Bali'

New Delhi, Jan 18: Lieutenant Governor (LG) Anil Baijal has granted the power of detaining authority to the Delhi Police Commissioner under the National Security Act (NSA), according to a notification. The NSA allows preventive detention of an individual for months if the authorities feel that the individual is a threat to the national security, and law and order, sources said.

In exercise of the powers conferred by sub-section (3) of section 3, read with clause (c) of Section 2 of the National Security Act, 1980, the Lt Governor is pleased to direct that during the period January 19 to April 18, the Delhi Police Commissioner may also exercise the powers of detaining authority under sub-section (2) of the section 3 of the aforesaid Act, the notification stated.

The notification has been issued on January 10 following the approval of the LG.

It comes at a time when the national capital has been witnessing a number of protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC).

However, the Delhi Police said it is a routine order that has been issued in every quarter and has nothing to do with the current situation.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, April 5: The number of coronavirus cases in India has surged past 3500 with 505 new cases in the last 24 hours from across the country.

According to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the total number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country has gone up to 3,577 as on Sunday. So far, 83 people have died of the coronavirus.

Among States, the tally in Maharashtra stood at 690. According to Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope, till now Mumbai has reported 29 positive cases, Pune 17, PCMC 4, Ahmednagar 3, Aurangabad 2 among others.

Here are the top developments of the day related to the pandemic.

1) Four new COVID-19 positive cases reported in Uttarakhand today, taking the total number of positive cases in the State to 26. Four persons have been treated and discharged till date, according to the Directorate of Health Services, Uttarakhand.

2) Prime Minister Narendra Modi today called up two former Presidents -- Pranab Mukherjee and Pratibha Patil and had a discussion on COVID-19 related issues. He also called up two former Prime Ministers -- Manmohan Singh and HD Deve Gowda -- to discuss COVID-19 situation.

3) The Prime Minister also called up leaders of various political parties like Sonia Gandhi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, K Chandrashekar Rao, MK Stalin, Parkash Singh Badal and Mayawati.

4) Total coronavirus positive cases rose to 68 in Punjab after three more cases were reported today --- one each in Ludhiana, SAS Nagar and Barnala. The person found positive in Ludhiana had attended the Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi.

5) No evidence of COVID-19 being airborne yet, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

7) With 14 new cases in Kashmir division, the total number of positive cases in Jammu and Kashmir now at 106. Active cases in Kashmir -- 82 and Jammu -- 18, said Rohit Kansal, Principal Secretary, Planning, UT of Jammu and Kashmir.

8) "There is an insufficiency of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) kits and N95 masks. We are in touch with the Centre and other agencies for supply. Receiving 15,000 PPE kits today. Requested Centre for 5 lakh PPE kits received 4,000 only," said Bihar's Principal Secretary, Health, Sanjay Kumar.

9) The total number of positive cases in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, till now is 122 after 9 more positive cases were found today, according to Indore Chief Medical and Health Officer Dr Praveen Jadia.

10) Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan visits AIIMS dedicated centre for COVID19 in Jhajjar, Haryana. He said: "All 162 patients admitted here are in stable condition."

11) 86 COVID-19 positive cases reported in Tamil Nadu today out of which 85 had attended the Tableeghi Jamaat event at Markaz Nizamuddin, Delhi, according to Beela Rajesh Tamil Nadu Health Secretary. There are 571 COVID positive cases in Tamil Nadu out of which 522 cases are from the people who had attended the religious function in Delhi, she said.

12) The Congress party on Sunday posed nine questions to the Centre, demanding compensation to the family of those, who died after battling with the coronavirus.

13) 47 new coronavirus positive cases reported in Rajasthan today, taking the total number of positive cases in the state to 253.

14) 8 new COVID-19 cases reported in Kerala, which include 6 imports and 2 contact cases, said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

15) "PPE kits are imported. So there was a shortage initially in the country but the government started taking action in this regard from January. Domestic manufacturers have started production. We have also started procuring PPE kits from other countries," said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secy, Health Ministry.