Supreme Court dismisses plea of sacked BSF jawan Tej Bahadur Yadav

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

London/Milan, Jun 2: World Health Organization experts and a range of other scientists said on Monday there was no evidence to support an assertion by a high profile Italian doctor that the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic has been losing potency.

Professor Alberto Zangrillo, head of intensive care at Italy's San Raffaele Hospital in Lombardy, which bore the brunt of Italy's COVID-19 epidemic, on Sunday told state television that the new coronavirus "clinically no longer exists".

But WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove, as well as several other experts on viruses and infectious diseases, said Zangrillo's comments were not supported by scientific evidence.

There is no data to show the new coronavirus is changing significantly, either in its form of transmission or in the severity of the disease it causes, they said.

"In terms of transmissibility, that has not changed, in terms of severity, that has not changed," Van Kerkhove told reporters.

It is not unusual for viruses to mutate and adapt as they spread, and the debate on Monday highlights how scientists are monitoring and tracking the new virus. The COVID-19 pandemic has so far killed more than 370,000 people and infected more than 6 million.

Martin Hibberd, a professor of emerging infectious disease at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said major studies looking at genetic changes in the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 did not support the idea that it was becoming less potent, or weakening in any way.

"With data from more than 35,000 whole virus genomes, there is currently no evidence that there is any significant difference relating to severity," he said in an emailed comment.

Zangrillo, well known in Italy as the personal doctor of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, said his comments were backed up by a study conducted by a fellow scientist, Massimo Clementi, which Zangrillo said would be published next week.

Zangrillo told Reuters: "We have never said that the virus has changed, we said that the interaction between the virus and the host has definitely changed."

He said this could be due either to different characteristics of the virus, which he said they had not yet identified, or different characteristics in those infected.

The study by Clementi, who is director of the microbiology and virology laboratory of San Raffaele, compared virus samples from COVID-19 patients at the Milan-based hospital in March with samples from patients with the disease in May.

"The result was unambiguous: an extremely significant difference between the viral load of patients admitted in March compared to" those admitted last month, Zangrillo said.

Oscar MacLean, an expert at the University of Glasgow's Centre for Virus Research, said suggestions that the virus was weakening were "not supported by anything in the scientific literature and also seem fairly implausible on genetic grounds."

New Delhi, Jan 30: In a major shift of strategy ahead of the Delhi assembly polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has decided to rope in its senior leaders for massive public rallies.

Its star campaigners like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP chief JP Nadda, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and other union ministers would now be addressing massive public rallies in addition to ongoing neighbourhood meetings.

"The big rallies would begin from February 1. While 'Nukkad' meetings will take place till the last day of campaigning, there would be big rallies of the top leadership of the party, " informed a senior party leader.

Sources said the BJP has changed its strategy after the success of its grassroots contact programme as the party wants to consolidate its gains.

"As part of the reworked strategy the BJP has asked its various Mandals to organise public meetings of 10,000-15,000 people in each assembly segment to reach out to the masses," sources added.

While there are two planned for Prime Minister Modi, two have been planned for JDU chief and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar along with Nadda and Amit Shah. Yogi Aadityanath too would be addressing 12 rallies.

The party is leaving no stone unturned to secure massive gains, which it feels can be converted to victory in the forthcoming polls.

Party sources feel that the relentless campaigning under the guidance of Amit Shah and Nadda has ensured that the morale of party cadre is at an all-time high.

"The neighbourhood meetings have ensured that we have been able to make the people of Delhi aware of the lack of work under the Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party government. They have also been apprised about the anti-national views of the opponents and we think that this is expected to turn the polls into our favour," sources added.

Delhi is scheduled for assembly polls on February 8 and the results for the 70 constituencies will be declared on February 11.

As part of the new strategy, senior leaders like JP Nadda, Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, ministers like Rajnath Singh and Smriti Irani would be holding public rallies in various parts of the city. Several other chief ministers from various BJP ruled states are also expected to be roped in for the campaign.

The strategy for reach out to the masses is an attempt at weakening the hold of AAP on Delhi. With positive feedback coming after the success of the neighbourhood meetings in the past week, the BJP is now looking to increase its potential reach with polls just days away.

Till now the party had deployed 70 union ministers to hold at least one public meeting and one 'padayatra' each as part of the campaign.