Muslims got their share during partition: Maharashtra BJP leader

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

Kochi, Jul 11: Johnny Paul Pierce's five-month stay in Kerala has been a soul-soothing experience for 74-year-old US citizen. He now wants to spend the rest of his life here.

"Kerala is a beautiful place to live in. This is my fifth trip here. I usually stay here for six months. It is such a magical place to be and I want to share that with people from the US," Pierce told ANI.

He came to India on February 26 on a tourist visa and is staying at Kandanadu in Kochi.

According to Pierce's Advocate, his tourist visa is valid up to January 26, 2025. But on this visa, he can only stay consecutively for 180 days.

The guidelines of the Indian government permit continuous stay for only 180 days for foreigners on tourist visas. His 180 days were set to expire on August 24, which the Foreigner Regional Registration Office (FRRO) extended to August 30.

The US citizen has approached the Kerala High Court seeking to convert his tourist visa into a business visa. The petition will be considered next week.

Pierce has sought a directive to the government to permit him to apply for the conversion of his tourist visa into a business visa and also to extend his stay, without having to leave the country.

"I am making a petition for an extra 180 days to stay. And I would also like to get a business visa in order to begin a tour company to bring people from the US to Kerala after the coronavirus. I wish my family could also come here. I am very impressed with what's is happening here. People in the US don't care about COVID-19," he said.

He talked about the risk of going back to his home country saying, "There are only 27 deaths in Kerala and in the US there over 1.3 lakh deaths. I do not want to go back to the US. I am 74 years old and I am at risk. This is a very safe place for me. I hope India embraces and allows me to stay."

"There's chaos in the US due to COVID-19 and government is not taking care like India. I want to stay here," he added.

Pierce further talked about his future plans, saying that if he is allowed to stay, he would like to lease a small resort and make a retirement community, which will be a COVID free zone.

Lastly, he made an appeal to the Indian government to let him stay in India saying that "all the immigration rules were made before COVID-19."

"There should be special consideration for people like me," he added.