Making India $5 trillion economy challenging but achievable: PM Modi

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Jan 21: With the IMF lowering India's economic growth estimate for the current fiscal to 4.8 per cent, senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Tuesday claimed an attack on the world body and its chief economist Gita Gopinath by government ministers was imminent.

He also alleged that the growth figure of 4.8 per cent given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is after some "window dressing" and he won't be surprised if it goes even lower.

"Reality check from IMF. Growth in 2019-20 will be BELOW 5 per cent at 4.8 per cent," Chidambaram said in a series of tweets.

"Even the 4.8 per cent is after some window dressing. I will not be surprised if it goes even lower," the former finance minister said.

IMF Chief Economist Gopinath was one of the first to denounce demonetisation, he noted.

"I suppose we must prepare ourselves for an attack by government ministers on the IMF and Dr Gita Gopinath," Chidambaram said.

The IMF lowered India's economic growth estimate for the current fiscal to 4.8 per cent and listed the country's much lower-than-expected GDP numbers as the single biggest drag on its global growth forecast for two years.

In October, the IMF had pegged India economic growth at 6.1 per cent for 2019.

Listing decline in rural demand growth and an overall credit sluggishness for lowering of India forecasts, Gopinath, however, had said the growth momentum should improve next year due to factors like positive impact of corporate tax rate reduction.

New Delhi, Mar 12: TMC MP Saugata Roy said Home Minister Amit Shah should resign for "failing" to control the riots in Delhi and demanded a judicial inquiry by a sitting Supreme Court judge.

Participating in a discussion on the violence in Delhi in Lok Sabha, Roy said the Delhi riots happened 72 years after Mahatma Gandhi was killed by a Hindu fanatic.

"Gandhiji has been murdered again in Delhi by, you know who," Roy said while addressing the Chair.

Taking on BJP MP Meenakshi Lekhi for defending BJP leaders for their controversial remarks, which he claimed instigated the violence, Roy said he has seldom heard such a communal speech ever.

Dubbing the BJP MP as "Devil's Advocate", Roy said, "She spent five minutes defending the most hated man. May I quote (William) Shakespeare and call her the Devil's Advocate?...She is the best Devil's Advocate possible. She has also been an advocate for the Delhi Police which has shown total inaction and ineptness in this whole riot in Delhi."

Thereafter Roy trained his gun at Shah, who was present in the house while the TMC MP was speaking.

He said that when the riots started on February 24, Home Minister Shah was sitting in the front row at Motera Stadium (in Gujarat) welcoming US President Donald Trump.

"When Mr. Shah should have been in Delhi Police control room, he was welcoming Mr. Trump at Motera. There was no order to the police. Then on 25th, things went out of control. Armed mobs fought with each other on the streets of Delhi," Roy said.

Demanding resignation of Shah, Roy raised questions on NSA Ajit Doval's visit to the riots-affected areas on February 26 and asked what was the Home Minister doing.

"Is it NSA's business to control ordinary law and order situation? Why was the Home Minister absent in action? There is no explanation for the same," he said.

The TMC leader said he feels bad standing face-to-face with Shah.

"He is still young, he has a good future. He should acknowledge responsibility for his failure to control or stop Delhi riots and bring peace in three days. In the name of God, go and do not stay in the Home Minister's position," Roy said, adding he is the man who could not prevent riots in Delhi, at a place 10 kilometres away from the Home Ministry.

Roy demanded a judicial inquiry into the riots by a sitting Supreme Court judge and complete rehabilitation for all the riot victims.