Economic outlook cloudy in FY20: RBI annual report

Agencies
August 30, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 30: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Thursday that the overall economic outlook of the country appeared clouded for 2019-20 and advised to prioritise the revival of consumption and private investment and structural reforms.

"Overall, the outlook appears clouded as the Indian economy begins its course through 2019-20," the RBI said in its annual report released on Thursday.

The central bank also expressed concern over falling rural demand amidst some surge in indices.

"Rural demand, however, was affected by moderation in agricultural growth as reflected in tractors and two-wheelers sales. Indicators of urban demand revealed a mixed picture in contrast. Air passenger traffic recorded its lowest growth in the last five years.

"Passenger vehicles sales were the lowest in five years on account of increase in insurance costs, volatile fuel prices and lack of financing options due to the liquidity stress in the non-banking sector. The production of consumer non-durables slumped to its lowest level in the past three years," the report highlighted.

The central bank in its review said that external demand operated as a drag for the second successive year while deficit south-west monsoon and depleted reservoirs dented the performance of the agriculture sector.

The rate of gross domestic savings had increased marginally to 30.1 per cent of gross national disposable income (GNDI) in 2017-18 from declines in the previous two years.

The household financial savings -- the most important source of funds -- had increased by 0.3 percentage points of GNDI, though it had remained much lower than 7.3 per cent during 2011-16.

The rate of gross domestic investment in the Indian economy, measured by the ratio of gross capital formation (GCF) to GDP at current prices, had risen to a peak of 39.8 per cent in 2010-11 before a prolonged slowdown set in, taking it down to 30.9 per cent in 2016-17.

A modest recovery was seen in the following year. Although data on gross domestic investment are not yet available for 2018-19, movement in its constituents suggests that the uptick could not be sustained.

Growth in fixed investment collapsed to a 14-quarter low in Q4 of 2018-19 as production of capital goods registered a sharp contraction while imports nosedived in a coincident manner.

However, the industrial sector posted resilient growth, mainly driven by manufacturing in the first half, while the momentum in construction and financial services sustained the healthy growth of the overall services sector, the RBI said.

"Going forward, priority should be accorded to revive consumption and private investment while continuing with structural reforms," the RBI said.

On job creation, the RBI said that official estimates suggest more regularisation of employment in 2017-18 and the various initiatives undertaken by the government are expected to create avenues for employment.

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Well Wisher
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Sunday, 1 Sep 2019

It could be rainy too.

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News Network
February 3,2020

Indore, Feb 3: Senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh on Sunday attacked the Centre for conferring the Padma Shri on Pakistan-origin singer Adnan Sami, who became an Indian citizen in 2016.

Addressing "Save the Constitution, Save the Country" rally here in Madhya Pradesh, Singh said Sami's father had "pounded India with bombs" when he was serving with the Pakistani Air Force (PAF).

"Since Sami is an artist who has come from Pakistan, I had recommended his case to the Indian government for citizenship. He has got Indian citizenship under the Modi government," the Congress leader said, adding that he never made any recommendation to the government for conferring Padma Shri on Sami.

He said Sami's father had "dropped bombs against us" while flying a Pakistan Air Force combat plane.

"In contrast, Indian Army officer Sanaullah of Assam, who had fought against the enemy, was sent to a detention camp for failing to show documents (during the Assam NRC exercise). This is the citizenship law of the Modi government," he said.

Sami, born in London to a Pakistani Air force veteran, applied for Indian citizenship in 2015 and became a citizen of the country in January 2016.

He was one of the 118 people chosen for the Padma Shri awards by the Centre last month.

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Indian Citizen
 - 
Monday, 3 Feb 2020

 

Nowadays, Modi is uttering Pakistan even in his dream, while putting the India & Indians on the fence.

BSF Officer Sanaullah was deprived of his basic rights and put in the detention center while Adnan Sami was granted citizenship and conferred with prestigious "Padma Shri" Award. Really, Modi & Amit Shah duos doesn't know what they are doing in India.....what a bizzare!!!

 

Indian Citizen
 - 
Monday, 3 Feb 2020

Nowadays, Modi is uttering Pakistan even in his dream, while putting the India & Indians on the fence.

BSF Officer Sanaullah was deprived of his basic rights and put in the detention center while Adnan Sami was granted citizenship and conferred with prestigious "Padma Shri" Award. Really, Modi & Amit Shah duos doesn't know what they are doing in India.....what a bizzare!!!

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Agencies
June 28,2020

New Delhi, Jun 28: Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday targeted former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, saying he was indulging in "shallow-minded" politics and making statements that make Pakistan and China happy when soldiers are fighting a spirited battle.

Shah said the government is ready for a discussion in Parliament about the situation from 1962 (when India-China war took place) and it is sad that a former president of a party making statements, which are being celebrated in Pakistan and China.

The Home Minister's comments came during an interview with ANI when he was asked about Rahul's "Surrender (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi" remarks while criticising the BJP-led government on India-China border row.

Rahul has been consistent in his criticism of the government on the handling of both Covid-19 situation and India-China border row, which escalated into a "violent face-off" earlier this month in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed.

"Let there be a robust debate in Parliament. Let us have one. Let us discuss from 1962. Nobody is scared of debate. But one should not make a statement that makes Pakistan and China happy when the soldiers are fighting a spirited battle and the government is taking strong steps," he said.

Asked whether India can handle the anti-India propaganda unleashed by Rahul's 'Surrender Modi' hashtag, he said the government is capable of handling it but it is a matter of introspection for the former Congress president and his party that their remarks are being used against the country.

Modi's remarks at an all-party meeting that no one has intruded into Indian territory triggered a controversy with a section arguing that it went against the previous statement of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

Claiming that he could not advise Rahul as it is Congress' job to do so, he said the government has fought Covid-19 well but some people have a twisted way of seeing things. He said India fought well against Covid-19 and the statistics will speak for itself as it is much better compared to the world.

Shah said under Modi's leadership, India is going to win both the battles -- Covid-19 and India-China border row.

The Home Minister also refused to be drawn into a question on whether Chinese soldiers are holding on to Indian territory on the border at present, saying the government is doing enough to address border row with China.

"I don't want to do anything that goes against my primary aim of this interview (to highlight the steps taken to fight Covid-19 pandemic in Delhi) and create headlines that keep citizens further in fear," Shah said.

When pointed out that people are also in panic due to the border situation, he said the government has taken steps to address the situation and at an appropriate time he would make comments, if needed.

Asked about his tweets on Emergency, which was targeted by Congress asking whether there is democracy in the BJP, he countered it saying that BJP has presidents L K Advani followed by Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath again, himself and now J P Nadda.

"After Indira-ji, was there any Congress President from outside Gandhi family? What democracy do they talk about? I did not do any politics during Covid-19. You look at my tweets of the past 10 years. Every June 25, I give a statement," he said.

"Emergency should be remembered by people as it attacked the roots of our democracy. No one should ever forget it. There should be awareness about it. It is not about a party but about the attack on the country's democracy," he said.

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News Network
May 18,2020

May 18: Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

Those estimates imply that real GDP will fall by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, which would be deeper than any other recession India has ever experienced, Goldman economists Prachi Mishra and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note dated May 17.

India’s government has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 31, while further easing restrictions in certain sectors to boost economic activity, as coronavirus cases escalate across the country. The announcement followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s fifth briefing in as many days, in which she outlined details of the country’s $265 billion virus rescue package, which is equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP.

 “There have been a series of structural reform announcements across several sectors over the past few days,” the Goldman economists wrote. “These reforms are more medium-term in nature, and we, therefore, do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth. We will continue to monitor their implementation to gauge their effect on the medium-term outlook.”

Infections are surging across the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, with more than 91,300 infections, including 2,897 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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