Economic outlook cloudy in FY20: RBI annual report

Agencies
August 30, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 30: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Thursday that the overall economic outlook of the country appeared clouded for 2019-20 and advised to prioritise the revival of consumption and private investment and structural reforms.

"Overall, the outlook appears clouded as the Indian economy begins its course through 2019-20," the RBI said in its annual report released on Thursday.

The central bank also expressed concern over falling rural demand amidst some surge in indices.

"Rural demand, however, was affected by moderation in agricultural growth as reflected in tractors and two-wheelers sales. Indicators of urban demand revealed a mixed picture in contrast. Air passenger traffic recorded its lowest growth in the last five years.

"Passenger vehicles sales were the lowest in five years on account of increase in insurance costs, volatile fuel prices and lack of financing options due to the liquidity stress in the non-banking sector. The production of consumer non-durables slumped to its lowest level in the past three years," the report highlighted.

The central bank in its review said that external demand operated as a drag for the second successive year while deficit south-west monsoon and depleted reservoirs dented the performance of the agriculture sector.

The rate of gross domestic savings had increased marginally to 30.1 per cent of gross national disposable income (GNDI) in 2017-18 from declines in the previous two years.

The household financial savings -- the most important source of funds -- had increased by 0.3 percentage points of GNDI, though it had remained much lower than 7.3 per cent during 2011-16.

The rate of gross domestic investment in the Indian economy, measured by the ratio of gross capital formation (GCF) to GDP at current prices, had risen to a peak of 39.8 per cent in 2010-11 before a prolonged slowdown set in, taking it down to 30.9 per cent in 2016-17.

A modest recovery was seen in the following year. Although data on gross domestic investment are not yet available for 2018-19, movement in its constituents suggests that the uptick could not be sustained.

Growth in fixed investment collapsed to a 14-quarter low in Q4 of 2018-19 as production of capital goods registered a sharp contraction while imports nosedived in a coincident manner.

However, the industrial sector posted resilient growth, mainly driven by manufacturing in the first half, while the momentum in construction and financial services sustained the healthy growth of the overall services sector, the RBI said.

"Going forward, priority should be accorded to revive consumption and private investment while continuing with structural reforms," the RBI said.

On job creation, the RBI said that official estimates suggest more regularisation of employment in 2017-18 and the various initiatives undertaken by the government are expected to create avenues for employment.

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Sunday, 1 Sep 2019

It could be rainy too.

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News Network
February 12,2020

New Delhi, Feb 12: Unidentified people opened fire at the convoy of the newly elected Aam Aadmi Party legislator Naresh Yadav in Southwest Delhi when he and his supporters were returning home after visiting a temple after his victory, killing a party volunteer, police and a senior AAP leader said.

The firing incident happened in Kishangarh village late Tuesday night.

Police said they have detained a person for questioning and the incident appears to be a case of personal enmity. Sources said seven rounds were fired at the MLA's convoy.

Another person injured in the incident has been admitted to a hospital.

AAP leader Sanjay Singh identified the dead party volunteer as Ashok Mann.

“Convoy of MLA Naresh Yadav attacked in Mehrauli, Ashok Mann killed. Naresh Yadav was returning home after visiting a temple,” Singh said in a tweet in Hindi.

“At least one volunteer has passed away due to bullet wounds. Another is injured,” AAP tweeted.

Ankit Lal, AAP's social media in-charge, added that miscreants in another car opened fire on the MLA's convoy near Fortis Hospital.

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News Network
January 24,2020

New Delhi, Jan 24: Although India's Ujjwala programme encouraged adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking among the poor, households availing the scheme have not shifted away from using highly polluting fuels like firewood, a study reveals.

The researchers, including those from the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Canada, found that additional incentives to encourage regular use of cooking gas are necessary for a complete transition to clean cooking fuel among poor rural households.

They noted that about 2.9 billion people across Asia, Africa, and Latin America burn solid fuels like firewood to meet their cooking energy needs.

This has significant negative implications for public health, the environment, and societal development, according to the researchers.

Through the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), India has provided capital cost subsidies to poor women to adopt a clean-burning cooking fuel or LPG.

The researchers explained that within the first 40 months of the scheme, more than 80 million households obtained LPG stoves.

However, the full benefits of LPG adoption depend on near complete replacement of polluting fuels with LPG, according to a research-based policy brief published in the journal Nature Energy.

The scientists said this cannot be assumed solely on the basis of LPG presence in the household.

"Our research shows that Ujjwala was able to attract new consumers rapidly, but those consumers did not start using LPG on a regular basis," Abhishek Kar, a postdoc at Columbia University in the US, told PTI.

The study analysed LPG sales data for over 25,000 consumers, including PMUY beneficiaries, as well as general rural LPG consumers in Koppal district of Karnataka.

The scientists employed data covering all LPG purchases of PMUY beneficiaries through their first year in the programme.

They also assessed the general rural population's purchases during their first five years as consumers to assess the effect of experience on use.

The findings estimate that an average rural family needs to purchase five 14.2 kilogramme-cylinders annually to meet half of their cooking needs.

However, the study said just seven per cent of PMUY beneficiaries in Koppal purchased five or more cylinders annually, suggesting that the beneficiaries seldom use LPG.

The general (nonPMUY) consumers in this region use on average two times more LPG cylinders than PMUY beneficiaries, the researchers noted.

Yet, only 45 per cent of nonPMUY consumers use five or more cylinders per year -- even after several years of experience with LPG, they said.

The team assessed price and seasonal factors affecting LPG use among the general population over a three-year period.

It found that LPG consumers are sensitive to price and seasonality -- LPG cylinder refill rates are lower in the summer when agricultural activity is limited, and cash is scarce.

"There was no scheme incentives to promote use, except general LPG subsidies which is available to all, including the urban middle class," said Kar, who was a Ph.D. scholar at UBC when the research was published.

"If there is no additional income, what cost would a poor family on an already tight budget cut to pay for an extra expense on a regular basis.

"Ujjwala has started the scheme of 5 kg-cylinder in response, but the impact of that on LPG sales is still publicly unknown," he said.

These findings, the researchers noted, suggest the need for additional measures to promote regular LPG use for all rural populations.

Although the finding come from a single district in Southern India, it may also apply to other areas with similar socio-economic conditions, they said.

A more expansive evaluation of PMUY would help design targeted incentives to transform infrequent users to regular users, according to the researchers.

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News Network
April 11,2020

New Delhi, Apr 11: Calling upon chief ministers to popularise Aarogya Setu app, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said it will an essential tool in India's fight against coronavirus and referred to the possibility of the app being an "e-pass which could subsequently facilitate travel from one place to other".

Interacting with chief ministers through video conference, the Prime Minister mentioned how South Korea and Singapore had got success in contact tracing and said India has made its own effort through the app amid efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus.

A PMO release said that the Prime Minister spoke about popularizing the Aarogya Setu app to ensure downloads in greater numbers.

"He referred to how South Korea and Singapore got success in contact tracing. Based on those experiences, India has made its own effort through the app which will be an essential tool in India's fight against the pandemic, he said. He also referred to the possibility of the app being an e-pass which could subsequently facilitate travel from one place to another," the release said.

The Prime Minister had earlier this week urged people to download the app saying it is an important step in the fight against COVID-19 and its effectiveness will increase as more people use it.

"Aarogya Setu is an important step in our fight against COVID-19. By leveraging technology, it provides important information. As more and more people use it, it's effectiveness will increase. I urge you all to download it," he had said in a tweet.

The app launched earlier this month in public-private partnership enables people to themselves assess the risk for their catching the coronavirus infection.

The app makes its calculations based on a person's interaction with others, using Bluetooth technology, algorithms and artificial intelligence.

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