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New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Jan 18: Days after the arrest of Deputy SP Davinder Singh along with two Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists, Shiv Sena on Saturday questioned the role of police in the Kashmir Valley.

"Cross border infiltration is ongoing in Kashmir. But the police machinery is being used to help the terrorists in Kashmir to safely cross the border (to Pakistan) and a President's medal awarded Deputy SP was arrested for doing so. In Kashmir (it seems), the government is using the police for some other purposes, what will the country's Home Ministry say if somebody has a doubt in connection with the Pulwama attacks," Sena mouthpiece, Saamna, read.

This was in reference to the incident in which Jammu and Kashmir police intercepted a vehicle on Sunday and arrested DySP Davinder Singh along with two top Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists, who were travelling together.

The Sena mouthpiece asserted that the impact and acceptance of the Centre removing Article 370 should be visible "through the people" during the upcoming Republic Day celebrations.

"Jammu and Kashmir is now a Union Territory. It is being ruled by the Centre through President's Rule. The government had removed Article 370 in a historic decision...The joy and excitement in the people over the removal of 370 should be visible in the Republic Day celebrations this time. The tricolour should be seen flying over all houses in Kashmir, it is the least that can be expected," it added.

The Sena mouthpiece further said that with the arrest of terrorists in the recent days, it hoped that "Republic Day will be celebrated safely in Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir".