2-yr-old TN boy trapped in abandoned borewell for 3 days found dead

New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

New Delhi, Apr 23: Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Thursday accused the BJP of spreading the virus of communal prejudice and hatred in the country, asserting that "grave damage" is being done to social harmony

Addressing a meeting of the Congress Working Committee, Gandhi said it should worry every Indian and her party will have to work hard to repair this damage.

"Let me also share with you something that should worry each and every one of us as Indians. When we should be tackling the coronavirus unitedly, the BJP continues to spread the virus of communal prejudice and hatred," she said.

"Grave damage is being done to our social harmony. Our party, we will have to work hard to repair that damage," the Congress president added

Former prime minister Manmohan Singh, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi and top Congress leaders attended the meeting through video conference

This is the second time the CWC, the Congress' top decision-making body, is meeting through video-conferencing in the past three weeks ever since the lockdown was enforced to contain the coronavirus threat.

The Congress president said the coronavirus pandemic has increased disturbingly in the past three weeks and called upon the government to increase testing for it

Gandhi said she has written several times to the prime minister since the lockdown was enforced and suggested several measures and constructive cooperation

"Unfortunately, they have been acted upon only partially and in a miserly way. The compassion, large-heartedness and alacrity that should be forthcoming from the central government is conspicuous by its absence," she said

The Congress chief said the focus of the party must continue to be on successfully engaging with health, food security and livelihood issues.

She claimed that around 12 crore people have lost jobs in the first phase of the lockdown and urged the government to provide a relief package for the MSME sector, which accounts for one-third of the GDP

Gandhi called upon the government to provide food and financial security to migrants and jobless stranded at various places and were desperate to reach back home

"We have repeatedly urged PM there is no alternative to testing, tracing and quarantine. Unfortunately, testing still remains low, testing kits still in short supply," she noted

Gandhi said trade, commerce and industry have come to a virtual halt and crores of livelihoods have been destroyed.

"The central government does not appear to have a clear idea on how the situation will be managed after May 3rd. A lockdown of the present nature after that date would be even more devastating," she said

Former prime minister Manmohan said the success of the lockdown will be judged finally on India's ability to tackle COVID-19

He also said the cooperation between the Centre and states was key to success of the country's fight against coronavirus

Singh said it is necessary to focus on a number of issues in the fight against coronavirus

The fight against COVID-19 would very much depend upon the availability of resources, he noted

Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot said unless the central government comes forward to financially help states, the fight against COVID-19 will get weakened

"Unless there is a big financial package for states, how will normalcy return to states post lockdown," he asked

Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel said unless the Centre rises to the occasion and provides financial assistance to states, how will the fight against COVID-19 be won

Puducherry chief minister V Narayanasamy said the Union government has not given any assistance to the states

"How will states survive in times of crisis. We are not enemies but have to act and work together," Narayanasamy said at the CWC meet.

The World Bank says that a lack of credit and drop in private consumption have led to a gloomy growth outlook for India with a steep cut in growth rate for the current fiscal year and only a modest gain projected for the next year.

India's growth rate is forecast to be only 5 per cent for the current fiscal year, weighed down by a growth of only 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday.

"In India, [economic] activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the Bank said.

The growth rate is forecast by the Bank to pick up to 5.8 per cent in the next fiscal year and to 6.1 per cent in 2021-22.

India's growth rate was 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

The 5 per cent growth rate projection for the current financial year is a sharp cut of 2.5 per cent from the 7.5 per cent forecast made by the Bank in January last year, toppling it from the rank of the world's fastest growing economy.

India's performance follows a global trend of lowered growth weighed down by developed economies.

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 per cent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the current year.

Even with the lower growth rate of 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and 5.8 per cent forecast for the next, India holds the second rank among large economies, behind only China with an estimated growth rate of 6.1 per cent for 2019 and 5.9 per cent this year.

The report blamed "weak confidence, liquidity issues in the financial sector" and "weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies" for India's slowdown.

The Bank predicated India's recovery to 5.8 per cent in the coming financial year for India but "on the monetary policy stance remaining accommodative" and the assumption that "the stimulative fiscal and structural measures already taken will begin to pay off."

It also warned that sharper-than-expected slowdown in major external markets such as United States and Europe, would affect South Asia through trade, financial, and confidence channels, especially for countries with strong trade links to these economies."

The Bank said that the growth of advanced economies was 1.6 per cent last year and "is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing."

In contrast the growth of emerging market and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent this year, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is estimated to have the highest growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, although down from 8.1 per cent last fiscal year.

But its higher regional growth rates are coming off a lower base with a per capital gross domestic product of $1,698 compared to $2,010 for India.

Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the next financial year.

Pakistan's growth rate is estimated at only 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and is projected to rise to 3 per cent in the next, according to the Bank.

The Bank blamed monetary tightening in Pakistan for a sharp deceleration in fixed investment and a considerable softening in private consumption for the fall in growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

Sri Lanka's growth rate was estimated to be 2.7 per cent last year and forecast to grow to 3.3 per cent this year.

Nepal grew by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and will rise to 6.5 per cent in the next.