SC verdict a salute to the sacrifices of Hindus: Togadia

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Feb 27: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday said that the situation is moving towards normalcy in Delhi after recent incidents of violence.

"Situation is moving towards normalcy," Rajnath told media here.

Joint Commissioner of Police (Traffic) Narendra Singh Bundela on Thursday said that the law and order and traffic situation in violence-affected parts of Delhi is normal.

"The situation is quite normal and peaceful as far as security and traffic are concerned. We have held talks and conducted patrols with people of all communities. Services such as road cleaning have resumed and traffic flow is normal," Bundela told ANI here.

"People can go out to get their daily needs from the market but we are advising them not to come out in groups," he added.

Meanwhile, the death toll in the incidents of violence in North-East Delhi has risen to 34.

Delhi Police has registered 18 FIRs and 106 people have been arrested in connection with the violence.

New Delhi, Mar 16: Chief Justice of India Sharad Arvind Bobde on Monday said that rules for preventing overcrowding in the courts to avoid the spread of coronavirus cannot be relaxed for journalists alone on the basis of profession.

"Can't make an exception on the basis of profession," CJI Bobde said while asking journalists to share information and notes and suggesting that a system can be put in place to facilitate daily media briefing by Secretary-General.

Video conferencing facility being contemplated may be brought into place but not sooner than one week from now and reporters may take turns to attend hearings, CJI Bobde said.

He said that the court does not wish to prevent any reportage.

Attorney General KK Venugopal and Solicitor General Tushar Mehta informed the Chief Justice of India about the crowded corridors on account of restricted entry inside courtrooms.

CJI Bobde said that he himself wishes to assess and take stock of the situation and may do so tomorrow at 10.30 am.

This comes after the top court introduced several precautionary measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus and allowed only restricted entry of lawyers, litigants, and journalists in the courtroom.

Thermal-screening of the lawyers, litigants, and media persons were also conducted in the Supreme Court on Monday amid coronavirus fears.