People getting married shows economy is fine: Union minister

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

New Delhi, Mar 29: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said that people should not think of COVID-19 quarantine facilities as a prison and spoke with two survivors of the infection during his radio show 'Mann Ki Baat' to establish that it was curable.
The Prime Minister spoke to coronavirus survivors -- Ramagampa Teja and Ashok Kapoor - and urged them to share their success against the infection with people.
The Prime Minister asked people to listen to the survivors who had successfully defeated the coronavirus.
"I have spoken to a few people who were infected from the virus and speaking to such people. While I tried to boost their morale they also lifted my spirits when I talked to them," he said.
Speaking to the Prime Minister during the show, Ramagampa Teja, an IT professional, who tested positive for COVID-19 after returning from Dubai, said that he was frightened when he tested positive for the disease and could not believe that this has happened to him.
He said even his family was very stressed after finding out his COVID-19 positive status. "But their test results came negative, which I took as a great blessing. And since then, there were improvements every day," he said.
Teja was admitted to a government hospital in Hyderabad and was released after 14 days as he successfully overcame the infection. "The first few days were the hardest but the dedicated doctors and nurses at the hospital ensured that I recovered," he added.
He asked people not to be afraid of being quarantined. "People feel that going into quarantine means going to prison. They should know that the government quarantine is for them and their families. I want to emphasise that people must get tested and do not fear quarantine," he added.
The Prime Minister congratulated him and his family and asked him to share an audio clip of his experience. "I would like you to make an audio of your experiences and share it on social media so that it goes viral and removes fear from people's minds," the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister also spoke to another coronavirus survivor, Ashok Kapoor, six members of whose family in Agra were tested positive for the deadly virus.
On being asked by the Prime Minister whether they had feared for their lives, Kapoor said, "We were not scared as we received excellent cooperation from the doctors and support staff at Delhi's Safdarjung Hospital."
The six of them were shifted to Delhi and put under quarantine for 14 days where all of them successfully recovered from the infection.
The Prime Minister also commended the spirit of Ashok Kapoor and said: "Your experience came in handy for all. My best wishes to you and your family."
He also urged the Kapoor family to spread awareness regarding COVID-19 in the way they see fit. "Please spread awareness your way and you can feed whoever is hungry, look out for the poor and also spread awareness to people urging them to follow the rules," the Prime Minister said.
"If everyone follows the rules, the country will be saved," the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister also thanked the people involved in ensuring the continuous supply of goods and services in the country and advised them to "follow all the safety precautions, take care of themselves and their family members."
Earlier in his address, Modi had asked for the forgiveness of all countrymen, and especially the poor, for the nationwide lockdown in the country in the view of the novel coronavirus. He had then termed it a necessary measure needed to defeat the infection in India.

Mumbai, Mar 5: Jet Airways founder Naresh Goyal and few others have been booked by the ED in a money laundering case even as the agency is conducting searches at his premises, officials said on Thursday.

They said a criminal case against the former chairman of the airlines has been filed under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) after taking cognisance of a recent Mumbai Police FIR filed against him.

The Enforcement Directorate carried out raids at Goyal's premises in Mumbai on Wednesday and also questioned him after filing the case, they said.

The action is continuing, they added.

The Mumbai Police FIR pertains to charges of alleged fraud by Goyal and others against a Mumbai-based travel company.

Goyal has earlier been grilled by the central probe agency in a case filed under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) in September last year.

The agency had carried out similar raids, under the FEMA, in August last year against Goyal, his family and others.

ED has alleged in the past that the businessman's empire had 19 privately-held companies, five of which were registered abroad.

The agency is probing charges that these firms allegedly carried out “doubtful” transactions under the guise of selling, distribution and operating expenses.

The ED suspects that expenses at these companies were allegedly booked at fake and high costs and as a result, they “projected” huge losses.

Alleged shady aircraft lease transactions with non-existent offshore entities are also under the ED scanner and it is suspected that Jet Airways made payments for lease rental to “ghost firms”, which purportedly routed the ill-gotten money in Goyal's companies.

A full-service carrier, Jet Airways shut its operations in April last year after running out of cash.

A month earlier, Goyal had stepped down as the chairman of Jet Airways.