To protest is our democratic right, but keep emotions under control: Shahi Imam

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

New Delhi, Apr 16: Minority Affairs Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi on Thursday directed state waqf boards to ensure strict implementation of lockdown and social distancing guidelines during the holy month of Ramzan starting next week amid the coronavirus pandemic.

At a meeting via video conferencing, Naqvi asked the state waqf boards' officials to create awareness among people to offer prayers and perform other religious rituals like "iftar (breaking of fast)" during Ramzan, which begins on April 24 or 25, staying inside their homes.

More than seven lakh registered mosques, eidgahs, imambadas, dargahs and other religious and social institutions come under state waqf boards across the country. The Central Waqf Council is the regulatory body of state waqf boards in India.

"We should cooperate with health workers, security forces, administrative officers, sanitation workers. They are working for our safety and well-being even putting their own lives at risk in this coronavirus pandemic," Naqvi said.

"We should also demolish rumours and misinformation being spread about quarantine and isolation centres by creating awareness among people that such centres are only meant to protect people, their families and the society from the pandemic," the minister said.

Naqvi told all the state waqf boards and religious and social organisations that everyone should remain cautious of any type of fake news and conspiracies aimed at creating misinformation. 

"Authorities have been working for safety and well-being of all citizens of the country without any discrimination. Such type of rumours and conspiracies are a nefarious design to weaken the fight against coronavirus," he said.

"We should work united to win this fight against corona by defeating any type of rumour, misinformation and conspiracy," the minister said.

Naqvi asked officials of all the state waqf boards to play an active and effective role in ensuring that people follow the guidelines of the Union Home Ministry, state governments and the Central Waqf Council while fulfilling religious responsibilities during Ramzan.

In view of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, all religious and social activities and mass gatherings in all the temples, gurdwaras, churches and other religious and social places of the country have been stopped, he said. 

Similarly, any mass gatherings in mosques and other Muslim religious places of the country has also been stopped, Naqvi said.

He said that due to the COVID-19 threat, religious leaders as well as religious and social organisations from all regions of the country, have appealed to people to offer prayers and perform all other religious rituals staying inside their homes during Ramzan. 

Most of the Muslim nations of the world have also banned mass gatherings at mosques and other religious places during the holy month, he pointed out.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in cooperation with all the state governments, has been working effectively for the safety and well-being of the people, he said.

The cooperation of the people has brought great relief to India in the war against COVID-19 Naqvi said, adding that several challenges are still there before the country. 

"We can defeat these challenges of the coronavirus pandemic by following all the guidelines of the central and state governments strictly," he asserted.

Chairman and senior officials from state waqf boards such as Uttar Pradesh (Shia & Sunni), Andhra Pradesh, Bihar (Shia & Sunni), Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar, Assam, Manipur, among others participated in the meeting.

State waqf boards from Rajasthan, Telangana, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Tripura and Uttarakhand also participated.

Mysuru, Feb 26: Twenty-nine students of the Government Primary School fell sick after consuming milk supplied at the school on Wednesday morning at Kiranguru village, in Hanagodu hobli, in the hunsur taluk in the district.

Police said the students were immediately rushed to the primary health centre in Hanagodu and provided first aid.

Tahsildar and Police personnel visited the health centre and inquired about the health of the students. "All the students are responding to the treatment," sources said.