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New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

New Delhi, Mar 20: The coronavirus pandemic will leave behind a global recession with small businesses, self-employed and daily wagers taking the worst hit, Mahindra Group Chairman Anand Mahindra said on thursday.

"The virus will eventually be conquered, but it will have left behind a global recession. The costs of that are incalculably high at this time. The most fearsome toll will be on small businesses, the self-employed & those whose lives depend on meagre daily wages," Mahindra said in a tweet.

Apart from the toll on lives, the legacy of Covid-19 may well be deaths due to stress, loss of livelihoods, a rise in homelessness and in extreme situations, civil unrest, he added.

"The only global experience that has lessons for us in the current situation is the last world war. In the aftermath of WW2, the US came up with the Marshall plan to revive Europe, effectively a giant fiscal pump-priming," Mahindra said.

In the US, the government dramatically dismantled regulations and opened up the economy to trade and these actions led to a boom-cycle that stretched to 1975, he added.

"This time, there will be no victors, only the vanquished. So every country will have to create its own post ‘virus war” marshall plan & take care of those in society who are hit the hardest. Perhaps we too can build the foundations of a sustained global growth cycle," Mahindra said.

Lucknow, Jul 19: The animal markets, which are usually bustling with activity ahead of Bakrid, are desolate this year.

The Covid-19 pandemic has shorn all festivals of public celebrations, and people are apprehensive that the tradition of animal sacrifice may be affected due to social distancing norms.

Also there is a massive drop in demand for sacrificial animals due to the financial impact of the crisis.

Chairman of All India Jamiat-ul-Quresh Sirajuddin Qureshi urged the government to come out with guidelines for carrying out the celebrations in the traditional way.

The festival will fall on July 31 or August 1. Buyers and sellers start thronging the animal markets almost two weeks ahead of the festival. But this year only a negligible number of buyers have turned up in animal markets in old Lucknow areas including Nakkhas, according to traders.

"It is very difficult to say as to what the government is thinking. 'Qurbani' is a matter of faith for the Muslims. We appeal to the government to deliberate and find a solution. This is a national problem, and our office bearers are speaking to different state governments," Qureshi said.

In the absence of guidelines, not many madrassas are buying animals for sacrifice, he said.

"The madrasas where collective 'qurbani' is done, are also not coming forward. In Bakrid, along with goats, buffaloes are also sacrificed. The government should ensure that people who are transporting the animals are not harassed by the police," Qureshi said.

Prominent Muslim cleric Khalid Rasheed Farang Mahali said he had raised the issue with the Uttar Pradesh chief minister.

"I have recently met Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath requesting him to issue guidelines for Bakrid. I am hopeful that the guidelines will be released soon," he said.

Rahat Ali, a goat trader from Rajasthan said, thousands of people will be affected due to the reduced demand for animals.

"The animal trade works in a chain involving farmers who rear animals, small traders and big traders.

"The traders buy the animals from the farmers. These are then sent to various states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. In the absence of demand, I did not purchase animals this year," he said.

Sajid, who supplies goats to various districts in western Uttar Pradesh, said the lockdown has affected the livelihood of people and not many have the money to buy animals for sacrifice.

"The lockdown has drained the people of their money. As a result, the animals are not getting sold," he said.

The Maharashtra government has come out with guidelines for Eid al-Adha, also known as Bakrid or Id-ul-Zuha, noting that there is a ban in place on all religious programmes and people should offer "namaz" in their homes and not in mosques.

It also said sacrificial animals should be bought online or over the phone as markets dealing with them will be closed, adding that "qurbani" should preferably be symbolic.

There will be no relaxation in restrictions for Eid in containment zones, and people are directed not to congregate in public places on the day of the festival, it added.