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Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, May 13: Prime Minister Narendra on Tuesday announced Rs 20 lakh crore special economic package for the country to be 'self-reliant' and deal with COVID-19.

"I announce a special economic package today. This will play an important role in the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan.' The announcements made by the government over COVID, decisions of RBI and today's package totals to Rs 20 lakh crore. This is 10 per cent of India's GDP," said Prime Minister Modi in his address to the nation. The Prime Minister said that humanity would not accept defeat from the coronavirus but the people have to stay safe and move forward.

"We had never seen or heard about such a crisis ever before. This is definitely unimaginable for mankind. It is unprecedented. But humanity will not accept defeat from this virus. We have to not only protect ourselves but also move forward," he said.

Talking about the gravity of the virus, Modi said: "It has been four months the world is fighting COVID-19. More than 42 lakh people from different countries have been infected by COVID-19. More than 2.75 lakh people have lost their lives due to the virus. In India too many families have lost their dear ones, I express my condolences to them."

"Today when the entire world is in crisis, we will have to further firm our resolve," he added.

The Prime Minister on Monday held a video conference meeting with Chief Ministers of all states to discuss the road ahead in India's fight against COVID-19 and noted that he was of the firm view that measures needed during the third phase of lockdown will not be needed in the fourth phase.

Prime Minister Modi had said the need was to reduce the transmission rate of the disease and to increase public activity gradually while adhering to all the guidelines and efforts to be made towards achieving both these objectives.

The phase three of the lockdown is coming to an end on May 17.

New Delhi, Apr 22: Philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has lauded Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership in dealing with COVID-19 pandemic by adopting several measures including lockdown and increasing health expenditure to strengthen the health system response.

"We commend your leadership and the proactive measures you and your government have taken to flatten the curve of the COVID-19 infection rate in India, such as adopting a national lockdown, expanding focused testing to identify hot spots for isolation, quarantining, and care, and significantly increasing health expenditures to strengthen the health system response and promote R&D and digital innovation," Gates wrote.

He added: "I'm glad your government is fully utilising its exceptional digital capabilities in its COVID-19 response and has launched the Aarogya Setu digital app for coronavirus tracking, contact tracing, and to connect people to health services."

Prime Minister Modi had on March 24 announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of COVID-19. The lockdown was later extended to May 3.

Gates further stated, "Grateful to see that you are seeking to balance public health imperatives with the need to ensure adequate social protection for all Indians."

With 1,486 new cases and 49 deaths in the last 24 hours, India's total number of coronavirus positive cases have risen to 20,471 while the death toll stands at 652, Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Wednesday.

Out of the total number of cases, 15,859 are active cases, 3,959 cured or discharged or migrated and 652 deaths.

Bill Gates met Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi on November 18 last year.

During his visit, Gates had addressed a function organised by NITI Aayog for the release of its report on 'Health Systems for a New India: Building Blocks - Potential Pathways to Reforms' wherein he lauded the country for its healthcare system and talked about how digital tools can help improve it further.

At that time, the philanthropist had commended the Central government for stepping up and eradicating polio.