Chhattisgarh minister TS Singh Deo calls Scindia power-hungry leader for ditching Congress

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

Meerut, Jan 8: Hangman Pawan Jallad, who officials say is being considered to carry out the execution of the four Nirbhaya gangrape case convicts, on Tuesday said he is ready for the job which will send out a strong message in the society.

He said executing those who were involved in the horrific crime will bring "great relief" to him, Nirbhaya's parents and everybody else.

Earlier in the day, a Delhi court issued death warrants against all the four convicts in the Nirbhaya gangrape-murder case and ordered that they are hanged on January 22 at 7 am in Tihar jail.

The death warrant, also known as a black warrant, addressed to the office of the Tihar jail chief, was issued by Additional Sessions Judge Satish Kumar Arora against Mukesh (32), Pawan Gupta (25), Vinay Sharma (26) and Akshay Kumar Singh (31).

"I do not have any information regarding the execution, nobody has spoken to me yet. If anyone approaches me, I am ready to do the job. Earlier, I was asked to be ready for the execution on December 16," Pawan Jallad told reporters here.

"Those who were involved in this brutal incident must be hanged, which will send out a strong message in the society," he said.

"Hanging the Nirbhaya gangrape case convicts will certainly bring great relief to me, her parents and everybody else," he added.

Nirbhaya, a 23-year-old paramedic student, was gang-raped and brutalised on the intervening night of December 16-17, 2012, inside a moving bus in south Delhi by the four men, along with two others, before being dumped on the road.

She died on December 29, 2012, at Mount Elizabeth Hospital in Singapore.

Of the six persons convicted, one allegedly committed suicide in jail and another, a juvenile, was released from a reformation home after serving a three-year term.

When contacted, Jail Superintendent of Meerut prison V P Pandey said he has not yet received any letter from Tihar authorities.

"Last month, we had received a letter asking us to keep Pawan Jallad ready but there is no fresh communication. The Delhi court warrants were issued this evening, maybe we will get the letter for sending him by tomorrow (Wednesday)," he said.

The gangrape of 23-year-old, who came to be known as 'Nirbhaya', the fearless one, sparked outrage across the country. Repulsed, people took to the streets across the country, demanding justice for her and better safety measures for women.

The case led to toughening of India's rape laws.

New Delhi, Jun 15: Two officials working with the Indian High Commission in Islamabad have reportedly gone missing, sources said.

The two officials are untraceable for the last few hours.

Recently news agency reported on how Pakistan 's spy agency ISI has been tailing and harassing Indian officials and also increased their presence at the residence of Acting High Commissioner Gaurav Ahluwalia.

This incident came in the backdrop when two Pakistani officials were caught red-handed and sent back trying to collect classified information and spying in Delhi.

South block is watching the developments closely, the Indian mission has also launched a complaint with local authorities and taken up the matter Pakistan Foreign Ministry.

This incident can cause a further dip in the already tense India-Pakistan relations.

Earlier in the month, India deported two Pakistani officials for espionage activities in India.