Saudi Arabia to ease lockdown in phased manner

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Abu Dhabi, Jun 2: The United Arab Emirates on Monday recorded 635 new coronavirus cases, taking the total number of infections in the country to 35,192, the UAE’s Ministry of Health and Prevention said in a statement carried by state news agency WAM.

The new cases were detected after the health authorities conducted 30,147 additional COVID-19 tests citizens and residents.

The ministry also announced that 406 more patients have fully recovered after receiving the necessary medical care, raising the total number of recoveries in the country to 18,338.

The announcement was made during the regular media briefing held in Abu Dhabi, wherein Dr. Amna Al Dahak Al Shamsi, official spokesperson for the UAE government, provided an update on coronavirus-related developments and measures taken to mitigate its impact.

During the briefing, Dr. Al Shamsi also announced the death of two patients from COVID-19, taking the total number of deaths in the country to 266.

"The number of COVID-19 cases still receiving treatment now stands at 16,588 from different nationalities," she added, noting that more than 650,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted over the past two weeks.

"Since the onset of the crisis, the UAE has focused on select segments of society, primarily the elderly and patients with chronic diseases, in order to ensure they survive the crisis," she added.

"We believe it is particularly morally important to support and stand by them, provide them with their daily needs, and keep them from harm’s way," she added.

Dr. Al Shamsi asserted that all precautionary measures announced, including the updated fines and penalties, will be enforced against violators, including citizens and residents.

"The law does not differentiate between citizens and residents. We are living in one homeland, which is for all of us," she continued.

"Your safety and health are a priority. We must comply with all precautionary measures. Though restrictions have been relaxed, caution must continue to be exercised."

Dr. Al Shamsi also warned, "Recklessness may undermine the efforts made by our frontline defenders. It is the responsibility of every individual to support protective efforts to ensure the safety of all."

Riyadh, Mar 25: A 46-year-old man died of coronavirus in Saudi Arabia, becoming the Kingdom’s second death, according to a health ministry’s spokesman.

The health ministry recorded 133 new infections, bringing the total to 900.

Of those newly confirmed cases, 18 are associated with recent travel, and were placed in quarantine upon their arrival in the Kingdom, the spokesman said.