Congress an equal partner in GST decision, says PM Modi

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Newsroom, May 5: Following the union government's nod, preparations are afoot to bring back Indian nationals stranded abroad from May 7 onwards.

According to sources, in the first phase from May 7- 14, the government would allow more than 60 “non-scheduled, commercial” flights to operate from about 12 countries to India to bring back 15,000 citizens. At least half of those flights will be from the Gulf region, including UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, while the rest would bring passengers from the U.S., the U.K., Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and Bangladesh.

The flights would be spread over 10 States identified as having the largest numbers to return, with Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Delhi (NCR) receiving the maximum number of flights.

A meeting held at the Ministry of Civil Aviation looked specifically at flights, mainly operated by Air India, while it awaits a final plan from countries where Indians need to be airlifted from. The first flights planned at present are from Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Riyadh and Doha, flying directly to Kozhikode and Kochi.

While the full estimate of Indians needing to return home could cross ten lakhs (a million), with more than two lakhs having registered to return from the UAE alone, officials said their return would be “prioritised and staggered”.

Flight plan for return of Indian nationals stranded abroad:

Chennai, Apr 25: Civic authorities on Saturday turned down a plea for exhuming the body of a doctor who died of COVID-19 here and burying it in another cemetery, citing health experts' view that it was unsafe to do so. Citing a request from the wife of the deceased doctor to allow exhumation and then re-burial at a cemetery in Kilpauk, the Greater Chennai Corporation said it sought a report from a committee of public health experts to ascertain the feasibility of entertaining her plea.

The spouse of the doctor had appealed to the GCC on April 22 to exhume and bury again her husband's body. She had said that burial in the Kilpauk cemetery here was her husband's last wish and he had conveyed it to her before he was put on a ventilator.

The report of experts has said that "it is not safe" to exhume and again bury the body of a COVID-19 victim and hence "it is not possible to accept her request," the GCC said in an official release. On April 19, a city-based 55-year-old neurosurgeon died of coronavirus and his burial at the Velangadu crematorium here was marred by violence.

A mob which falsely feared that the burial may lead to the spread of contagion had attacked the corporation health employees and associates of the deceased doctor. The doctor's wife and son also had to leave the burial ground in view of the violence.

The body was brought to Velangadu as people of Kilpauk area had opposed his burial there. Over a dozen men involved allegedly in violence were arrested and remanded to judicial custody. Later, in a video message, the surgeon's wife had said that it was her husband's last wish to be interred at the Kilpauk cemetery as per Christian rituals

Chief Minister K Palaniswami and DMK president M K Stalin had spoken to her on Wednesday over the phone and condoled her husband's death.