Congress holds key to 'non-BJP' govt formation in Maharashtra

News Network
November 11, 2019

Mumbai, Nov 11: The Congress, which stood at the fourth position by winning 44 seats in the recent Maharashtra Assembly elections, now holds the key to formation of a 'non- BJP' government in the state.

The Shiv Sena, which is determined to form a government without its long-term ally BJP, on Monday said it is waiting for an official communication of support from both the Congress and NCP.

The BJP, which is the single largest party in the state, on Sunday decided against staking claim to form government for want of adequate numbers.

Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari then invited the Shiv Sena , which has been at loggerheads with the BJP over sharing the chief minister's post.

The Sena is the second largest party in the 288-member House with only 56 MLAs after the BJP (105).

Given the stalemate between the two alliance partners, the role of the Congress and the NCP is crucial.

The NCP, which won 54 seats, 10 more than Congress in the state elections, said it had a pre-poll alliance with the grand old party, hence the decision on formation of a "non- BJP" government will be taken only after an official communication from the Sonia Gandhi-led party.

Senior Shiv Sena MLA Pratap Sarnaik said, "All the Sena legislators have signed our party's proposal to stake claim to form government. We are, however, waiting for an official communication from the NCP and Congress on extending support to us."

NCP's chief spokesperson Nawab Malik on Monday said it is the responsibility of "all of us" to give an alternative considering the plight of people in the state.

"Once we receive an official communication from the Congress, the decision will be announced jointly," he said.

AICC general secretary in-charge for Maharashtra Mallikarjun Kharge said in New Delhi that the party will discuss the possibility of offering an alternative in Maharashtra with some of the senior leaders from the state.

"We will announce our decision by 4 pm today," he said.

The term of the 13th state Assembly ended on Saturday.

The Shiv Sena has time till 7.30 pm on Monday to stake claim.

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News Network
January 24,2020

New Delhi, Jan 24: Under attack for doling out subsidies, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Friday said freebies in limited dose are good for the economy as they make more money available to the poor and boosts demand.

Opposition parties have been attacking the AAP-led Delhi government for giving "freebies" ahead of polls after it announced schemes like free bus rides for women and 200 units of free electricity.

"Freebies, in limited dose, are good for economy. It makes more money available to poor, hence boosts demand. However, it should be done in such limits so that no extra taxes have to be imposed and it does not lead to budget deficits," Kejriwal said in a tweet.

Slamming the BJP, Kejriwal said he is happy that the people of Delhi have forced the Saffron party to ask for votes on the basis of CCTVs, schools and unauthorised colonies.

Reacting to a tweet of the BJP Delhi in which Home Minister Amit Shah had asked how many schools have been constructed and cameras installed by the AAP government, Kejriwal said he is happy that Shah saw some CCTV cameras as earlier he had claimed that he could not find a single one.

"I am happy you saw some CCTV cameras. A few days back you said there was not a single camera. Take out some time we will show you our schools also. I am extremely happy that the people of Delhi have changed the politics by which the BJP has to ask for votes on CCTV, schools and raw colonies here," he said in a tweet.

Responding to Shah's allegation that he could not find WiFi in Delhi as promised by Kejriwal and that his battery drained out in the process, the Delhi chief minister said along with free WiFi they have also made arrangement for free charging points.

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News Network
April 8,2020

Jamnagar, Apr 7: A 14-month-old baby boy, who had tested positive for coronavirus in Gujarat's Jamnagar district on April 5, died of multiple organ failure on Tuesday, said officials.

The toddler, son of a migrant labourer-couple having no recent travel history, died in the evening at a government hospital in Jamnagar, said an official release.

He was in a critical condition ever since he was admitted to the hospital, it said.

The boy, who tested positive for coronavirus two days ago, was as on ventilator support and eventually died due to multiple organ failure, said the release.

He becomes the youngest patient to succumb to COVID-19 in Gujarat, where the death toll has now gone up to 16.

The baby was the first and the only case of coronavirus infection so far in entire Jamnagar district and the youngest to be diagnosed with the disease in Gujarat.

Ever since he tested coronavirus positive, the authorities had been tracing the source of his infection.

His parents are from Uttar Pradesh and work as casual labourers in factories in the port city.

His parents, who have no travel history in the recent past, are asymptomatic (not showing symptoms) and kept under quarantine, officials said.

The locality where the couple resides in Dared village near Jamnagar city has been put under complete lockdown to check the spread of the virus, they said.

Gujarat has so far recorded 175 coronavirus positive cases and 16 fatalities.

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Agencies
May 27,2020

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

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