Congress may win 140-plus Lok Sabha seats, says internal survey

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

Mumbai, Jun 16: Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, PIF, is all set to pick up a stake in Jio Platforms, which would complete 25% of Jio’s equity dilution to the investors, said a report by the Gulf News.

Jio Platforms is part of the Reliance Industries empire owned by Mukesh Ambani. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) will acquire 2.33% for an estimated $1.5 billion, the report said.

So far, Jio Platforms has raised investment from 10 different global investors in seven weeks, the latest being TPG Capital buying 0.93% equity for Rs 4,547 crore and private equity firm L Catterton picking up a 0.39% stake for Rs 1894.50 crore.

Jio Platforms has raised a total of Rs 1.04 lakh crore so far from leading global investors including Facebook, Silver Lake, Vista Equity Partners, General Atlantic, KKR, Mubadala, ADIA, TPG and L Catterton since April 22.

With PIF coming on board, Jio Platforms would have diluted 25% of its equity. That's the maximum they intend to dilute to financial investors, which includes Mark Zukerberg's Facebook.

Any new investors coming on board in future will have to be "strategic investors, a tech giant, for instance," said a source who was part of the deal-making process, the report said.

In recent days, Jio Platforms, which will merge telecom, content streaming, gaming and ecommerce features into its app, has seen Abu Dhabi's Mubadala and ADIA pick up significant stakes amounting to $1.2 billion and $750 million, respectively.

Reliance Industries' owner, Ambani, Asia's richest man, has been on an investor acquisition spree, with the likes of Facebook and private equity majors such as KKR and Silver Lake Capital investing in Jio Platforms.

The contours of the deal with Saudi Arabia's PIF was finalised during Ramadan. "It was always Mukesh Ambani's wish to have a special relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE," said Anshuman Mishra, a London-based confidante and family friend of the Ambani family of longstanding, Gulf News quoted as saying.

He has also worked extensively with Gulf sovereign wealth funds over the years.

"Saudi Arabia's coming in to close the financial investor round in Jio is indicative of the special nature of the relationship. This is also indicative of the multi-billion-dollar partnership announced last year with Saudi Aramco.

"This is a major success for the present Indian government's foreign policy initiative in the gulf and symbolic of India's significance in the GCC," it said.

Bijnor, Feb 6: Apprehensions over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) are now so strong that a team of economic enumerators were allegedly manhandled in Uttar Pradesh's Bijnor district and faced stiff resistance from the people.

A team of the economic census enumerators in Bijnor, on Wednesday, sent a letter to the District Magistrate narrating the difficulties they are facing in some parts "due to misinformation".

District magistrate Ramakant Pandey, when contacted, said that he had asked the department concerned to complete the work on time. "If teams are facing any problems, we will sort it out at once. No hurdle in economic census will be tolerated," he said.

According to District Economic and Statistics Officer, Harendra Malik: "Our teams are facing protests in minority-dominated areas as people are linking it to the NRC. Some team members were manhandled.

"We have now asked village heads and municipality chairmen to help our teams in the survey and convince the people. Our teams are trying to convince them that it is a routine work which is being carried out for years. It has nothing to do with the NRC or CAA."

He further said that they plan to hold a series of meetings with people's representatives, including village heads and chairmen, so that they could put an end to this confusion.

The seventh economic census was flagged off in Bijnor by District Magistrate Ramakant Pandey on January 6. There are around 3,000 enumerators and 569 supervisors engaged in the census being carried out under the supervision of economic and statistics department. It is expected to be completed by March 31.

The economic census is aimed at collecting data about the financial status of people engaged in unorganised sector.

Meanwhile, the areas where the enumerators are facing stiff resistance include Kalhari village in Najibabad block, Amipur Narain village in Mohammadpur Devmal block, Anisa Nangli village in Dwarka block and the Mirzapur Bella village in Jalilpur block.