Congress to sweep Karnataka polls; JD(S) may suffer a major blow: Survey

Bengaluru, Mar 26: A fresh pre-poll survey has predicted that the ruling Congress will not only return to power in Karnataka in 2018 polls, but will also improve its tally in the 224-member legislative assembly.

The survey conducted by C-Fore gives the Congress 126 seats this year. It says that the BJP will improve its tally with 70 seats. However this would be at the cost of the JD(S), whose strength is expected to reduce to 27 seats from 40. ‘Others’ are expected to get only 1 seat and a vote share of 7%.

The survey was between March 1 and 25 and spoke to 22,357 voters across 154 assembly constituencies. The respondents were spread across 2,368 polling booths covering 326 urban and 977 rural locations. C-Fore said it had a margin of error of 1 percentage point. The survey was reportedly commissioned by the ruling party.

In 2013, C-Fore had predicted that the Congress would win 119-120 seats and it ended up with 122. The new survey says that the Congress will improve its vote share by 9% and end up with 46% of the vote. BJP, the survey said, will have 31% of the vote and JD (S) will have 16%.

Of the men that were surveyed, 44% supported Congress, 33% said they would vote BJP, 17% were with JD (S) and 6% support ‘others’. Among the women, 48% are Congress supporters, 29% are with the BJP, 14% said they would vote for JD (S) and 8% support others. Congress leads among voters in all age groups, which include 18-25 (46%), 26-35 (47%), 36-50 (43%) and 50+ (50%).

Region-wise split 

Of the 28 Assembly seats in the Bengaluru region, the Congress is expected to win 19 and BJP is expected to win 9. Of the 65 seats in Old Mysuru region, consisting of Chikmangalur, Tumkur, Kolar, Chikballapur, Bangalore Rural , Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Chamrajanagar and Ramnagaram, Congress is projected to win 33, BJP 7, JD (S) 24 and ‘others’ 1. The JD (S) will win most of its seats from this region, the survey said.

Of the 50 seats in Bombay Karnataka region, consisting of Belgavi, Bagalkot, Vijayapura, Haveri, Dharwad and Gadag, the Congress is projected to win 28 and BJP will get 22. BJP will have an edge in the 22 seats of Central Karnataka, consisting of Davengere, Shimoga and Chitradurga, and will win 13 seats, compared to the Congress’s 9.

The 19 seats of Coastal Karnataka, consisting of Udupi, Uttara Kannada and Dakshin Kannada, will see an even battle as the Congress is expected to carry 10 and the BJP is projected to win 9 seats. In the Hyderabad Karnataka region, which has Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal and Bellary, Conrgess is likely to win 27 of the 40 seats, BJP is expected to get 10 and JD (S) 3.

Also Read: Siddaramaiah most popular choice for CM in Karnataka, says survey