‘Conspiracy’: Kerala won't protect activists led by Trupti Desai to visit Sabarimala

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Washington, Feb 16: India and the United States share "unshakeable" ties, said US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (PDAS), Alice Wells, on Sunday, adding that the upcoming visit of President Donald Trump will further strengthen the relationship between the two countries.

"The U.S. and #India enjoy a close partnership that grows stronger day by day. Together, we are breaking records. For example, we welcomed a record number of Indian exchange students to the US last year and hope to receive even more this year," said Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs in a tweet attributed to Alice Wells.

"The ties between our countries are unshakeable, and we look forward to an even warmer relationship as @narendramodi hosts @POTUS later this month," it added.

Trump will pay a two-day state visit to India from February 24 at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

"India is at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region and plays an increasingly prominent role on the world's stage. The U.S. looks forward to partnering with #India at every step of the way, " Alice Wells further said.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), Trump is expected to attend an event at the Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad on the lines of the ''Howdy Modi'' function that was addressed by the US President and PM Modi in Houston in September last year. Trump is slated to pay a two-day visit to India from February 24.

During the visit, Trump, who will be accompanied by First Lady Melania, will attend official engagements in New Delhi and Ahmedabad, and interact with a wide cross-section of the Indian society, the MEA said in a statement.

The announcement of Trump's first official visit to India was earlier made by the White House on Monday, which, in its statement, said that the US President and Modi had agreed during a recent phone conversation that the trip will "further strengthen the United States-India strategic partnership and highlight the strong and enduring bonds between the American and Indian people".

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 19: The CPI(M) will soon launch a nation-wide house-to-house campaign to explain to the people, the 'link' between CAA-NPR-NRC, party general secretary, Sitaram Yechury said on Sunday.

The intense campaign will take place all over the country, he said while briefing the media about the three-day central committee held at Vilapilsala near here.

The central committee also urged the people not to answer the NPR questions.

"The Central committee has called upon the people not to answer any questions concerning the NPR when the enumerators come to their houses...," the left leader said.