Coronavirus could cost 135 million jobs, push 120 million people into poverty in India

Agencies
May 17, 2020

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

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News Network
May 21,2020

Srinagar, May 21: Two Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were killed and their weapons snatched by militants in the Pandach area on the outskirts of Srinagar yesterday.

According to IGP Kashmir Vijay Kumar, the two BSF jawans, who were on road surveillance deployment, were fired upon by two of the three terrorists on a motorcycle around 5:15 pm on the 90-Ft Road at Pandach, near Soura. 

They were critically injured and later succumbed to injuries. The terrorists escaped after taking away one AK rifle and one INSAS. Efforts were underway to trace the terrorists.

He said that two jawans, Constable Rana Mandol and Constable Ziaul Haque of ‘C’ company of 37th battalion, were injured and they later succumbed.

“The terrorists managed to take away the weapons of the martyrs. Area has been cordoned off and the search for the terrorists is on”, he said.

Residents around the spot said that the two soldiers were buying chicken for Iftar from a mutton dealer, around 300 meters away from their deployment location when three militants on a motorcycle stopped and opened fire on them.

Medical Superintendent SKIMS Dr Farooq Jan said that both the jawans were brought dead to the tertiary care hospital.

Senior Police officials said it was a “clear case of security lapse” as the two jawans had left their spot of deployment on Srinagar-Kargil-Leh road and gone to a shop 500 metres away on a different road.

They said that possibility of terror attacks and subsequently claims by the new outfit TRF had been flashed to all forces earlier this week.

The terror strike in the capital city has occurred a day after an encounter in downtown Srinagar, where two Hizbul Mujahideen militants, including the top wanted Junaid Sehrai, had been killed on Tuesday.

In the last one month, five Army and Police personnel and two militants had got killed in an encounter in Handwara area of Kupwara, a day before three CRPF men were killed in another attack.

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News Network
January 28,2020

Panaji, Jan 28: Bureaucrat-turned-activist Kannan Gopinathan on Tuesday said even some "RSS people" are convinced the Citizenship Amendment Act is a bad law but are keeping quiet as the NDA government at the Centre is their own baby.

Speaking in Panaji, he further said the Narendra Modi government was behaving like a "drunken teenager" which needs to be questioned or else it will end up destroying homes.

"I was detained twice in UP, kept the whole day, because they (government) do not want the questioning (of CAA). I have met so many RSS people, they also understand this...if you have this conversation, they also understand the government has done something (wrong) and they have been asked to support it," he claimed.

He said the line of thought among these RSS people (he met) was "just support it (CAA)" as they don't want an altercation because the "government is their baby".

"He (government) is not a normal baby, he is a drunken teenager. He should be asked questions because when he starts destroying, he does not destroy somebody else's home but your own home," Gopinathan said.

He also hit out at those who have been claiming that the people protesting against the CAA are unaware about the law and have not even read it.

Gopinathan claimed if one had asked supportive MPs about the CAA on the day it was passed in Parliament, several of them would not have been able to speak on it as "they would not have known what was passed, because they were not given time (to go through the bill)".

He said, earlier, such legislation was passed after several rounds of consultation but "now, by night, it becomes an Act", adding (now) "everything is a surgical strike".

Gopinathan, in a possible reference to the National Register of Citizens exercise carried out in Assam, also claimed "thousands of people are in detention centres".

"It is your fundamental right to peacefully assemble without arms, Article 19 (1) (D) (of the Constitution)," he said at a function organised by a group opposed to CAA.

Gopinathan said people "always felt they were in a democracy" because they never tried to fly, when in reality "you are in a cage".

"The moment you want to fly you realise you are in a cage," he said, adding that "we have to question, we have to ask ourselves where are we going".

"When you don't allow a person to speak against an incorrect legislation, then what is democracy? What is freedom of expression?" Gopinathan questioned.

Gopinathan, a 2012 batch AGMUT cadre Indian Administrative Service officer, was the secretary, Power Department of the Union Territories of Daman and Diu, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli when he resigned on August 21 last year.

At the time, he had claimed the people of Jammu and Kashmir were being denied freedom of expression following abrogation of Article 370 by the Centre.

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News Network
May 23,2020

New Delhi, May 23: Carrying a sack full of belongings and a backpack on shoulders daily wager Mohammed Sunny and his friend Mohammed Danish are determined to reach home for Eid in Bihar's Araria district, facing all odds stacked up against them.

Shahjehanpur native Adesh Singh with his wife and three little children, who left their residence in south Delhi three days ago, are still scrambling to reach home, haggling with taxi drivers, to take them to their home town charging a reasonable fare.

This was among the many scenes of migrants' life on Friday at Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border touching Ghazipur in east Delhi who are struggling to make their way to their native places amid a COVID-19-induced lockdown across the country.

"We left home three days ago near Chhatarpur, we have walked and rested by roadsides, people gave us food on the way, so we survived. Now, we just want to reach home, we can't survive in Delhi," Manju Singh, wife of Adesh Singh told PTI as she waited at the UP Gate to get a taxi to cross the border on way to her home.

Their three children Alok (12), Ankesh (8) and Rupali (9), all wearing simple masks, were seen squatting on the roadside beside their luggage as their wearied parents, using cloths to cover their nose and mouth, bargained with taxi drivers to take them home, without charging much above the regular fare, saying they "did not have much cash left".

Police personnel could be seen asking many migrants who were marching on foot towards the inter-state border, to turn back.

Many did, but not Sunny and Danish, who feel if "Allah wants us to reach home, we surely will".

Both of them worked at a chemical plant in Delhi, and said, they have been "kicked out" after the lockdown was imposed, making their survival difficult in the national capital.

"We don't have money to pay rent now, or buy food, we have to go home now, what option do we have," Sunny said.

Danish alleged that the poor have been "abandoned" by the government and left in the lurch.

"The government has money to bring home Indians stranded abroad, but can't take home the Indians who have been toiling hard all these years. Is it fair to us," he asked.

"But, Inshallah, we will reach home if the Almighty wants us to, and will be joining our family for Eid, though it will hardly be a celebration this time. But, we want the comfort of being with our family at least," Sunny said.

Eid which marks the end of the holy Ramzan month, will be celebrated either on Sunday or Monday, depending on sighting of the moon.

Lakhs of migrant labourers stranded away from home in Delhi and other big cities have been attempting to reach home in the last two months, a large number of them walking on foot after they found no mode of conveyance.

The coronavirus death toll in Delhi has mounted to 208, while 660 fresh cases of COVID-19 infection reported on Friday, the highest single-day spike here, took the total in the city to 12,319.

Roshan Shrivastav (19), his nephew Shivam Shrivastav (19) and friend Prince Gupta (21), all hailing from Siwan in Bihar, were seen standing on a pavement after being told by the police to turn back from the barricade posted bear the Delhi-UP border.

"We live together in Baljeet Nagar in West Delhi, in a single room. I had come from Bihar after Holi, seeking a job, but then I got stuck in lockdown here without a job. Whatever money I had brought, and Rs 10,000 our parents had sent online, all has got exhausted in these three months," Roshan lamented.

"Our landlord has been very kind, and didn't even ask for any rent after the lockdown, but how long can we survive on charity. And, I don't like being dependent on someone, so we want to go home," he said.

Roshan said, he and Shivam, both also write and sing songs in Hindi and their native tongue Bhojpuri.

"We have written a few lines on lockdown crisis too -- 'Hum mazdooran ke ghar bhejwa da sarkar, nahin to ketna log hiyan par ho jai bimar' (please send us home or else many would fall sick here)," Shivam said, as he stood in scorching heat of May, carrying his leftover cash in pocket and hope in heart. 

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